Showing posts with label OCBC Bk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OCBC Bk. Show all posts

Monday, November 4, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: DBS VickersPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 12.40

Stock Name: OSIM
Company Name: OSIM INTERNATIONAL LTD
Research House: Credit SuissePrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.50

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 11.84




Market Compass


04 November 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:
04 Nov 2013 ~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.

Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping

Source: Marketwatch



Quote for the day : Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential.
- WINSTON CHURCHILL
Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK :The Valley of choice for Singapore professionals. High salaries, flexible hours, progressive culture make Silicon Valley a major draw

[SINGAPORE] More Singaporeans have moved to Silicon Valley (SV) for work in the last decade, according to people who have worked or are working there. And while information technology (IT) and engineering professionals are known to command higher salaries, those who move cite other reasons.
"As a trend, I do see it increasing; we actually try to keep track of the numbers," said Vinnie Lauria, founding partner of tech incubator Golden Gate Ventures (GGV) which has offices in Singapore and SV.
"As the Singaporean network in SV gets stronger, it encourages more folks to make the jump - something they were afraid to do earlier."
Although there are no absolute numbers to show, Mark Sin, president of SingaporeConnect, a grassroots organisation that supports Singaporeans living in San Francisco, noted that he is seeing more Singaporeans at get-togethers.
For James Chan, the founder-CEO of tech incubator Silicon Straits who studied and worked in SV from 2005 to 2009, said the increase was not obvious to him - until he came home.
"It got a lot more obvious after I returned to Singapore and tried to wrap my head around the shortage of startup-compatible software engineers here. Those who were sufficiently exposed to Western tech media tended to aspire to leave Singapore to work at startups in SV," he said.
Why SV? A major pull factor mentioned by many is surprisingly not the salary, but that there is a greater respect for tech and engineering professions there.
Said Shaun Lim, who moved to SV to work at PayPal after graduating from the National University of Singapore (NUS) in 2010: "I'm a software engineer and this is arguably the best place to be for my profession.
"The work here is more interesting and meaningful. Even as a junior engineer, I was able to start projects of significant size from scratch and be responsible for design and implementation. I don't believe this is something engineers in Singapore enjoy."
Caleb Chao, a fellow NUS graduate and now a software engineer at Google, said he appreciated the opportunity to develop and work on established and complex IT systems there.
"Large IT companies have offices in Singapore mainly for sales, marketing and technical support; development is mostly non-existent and at the very most a token presence," Mr Chao said.
The Valley's open, welcoming and progressive culture is another much-talked-about pull factor.
"Hours are flexible. If people want to take time off for appointments or errands, there's no need to specifically take vacation hours," Mr Sin said.
"SV is an inspirational place to be in. Words like 'disrupt', 'change' and 'new technologies' are all the rage; coffee shops are always packed with entrepreneurs working on startup ideas or pitching to investors. We also get to be at the forefront of and use the latest technologies before others do," said Jenn Ng, who worked at DBS and PwC Singapore before joining SV-headquartered software company Intuit.
"It's the only spot in the world that has kept up with its virtuous cycle of paying it forward, and celebrates failure as much as it celebrates successes," said Silicon Straits' Mr Chan.
Agreeing, GGV's Mr Lauria said: "It's a culture that rewards risk-seekers. Most people in the Valley are from somewhere else; 52 per cent of startups are by foreign-born entrepreneurs. These are the people who aren't scared of failure and will dare take a jump into the unknown."
In fact, one of the reasons why SV thrives is that it is a land of equal opportunities for immigrants, said Tan Yinglan, author of The Way of the VC and venture partner at Sequoia Capital.
"Anecdotally, immigrants in SV have been entrepreneurial, motivated, hungry and eager to improve their lot in life. This creates economic dynamism in the Valley," Mr Tan noted.
"It can be a pretty competitive place to be in. Analysts are expected to have a certain level of technical abilities such as coding skills. Many interns don't mind working for free, and it is still a male-dominated industry," Ms Ng pointed out.
For those who work for pay, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the software engineer in SV commanded an average annual wage of US$100,049 last year. This compares with the average annual salary of $57,936 drawn by a software engineer in Singapore.
Human resource consulting firm Robert Half International also ranked SV as the fourth metro area in the United States likely to offer the biggest pay raise in 2014.
And while many places, including Singapore, have aspired to learn from SV's successes, observers said the island-state should not aspire to be the next SV. It has made significant strides in maturating its tech and startup ecosystem, and is better-placed to be Asia's startup hub instead.
"The 'SV label' carries with it a heavy burden of expectations that Singapore is still far from meeting. A good amount of entrepreneurial talent bled out of our ecosystem after the dotcom bust.
"We're only just beginning to see a revival of key elements in our ecosystem over the past two years - designers, engineers, entrepreneurs, capitalists, investments, acquisitions - yet, much remains to be done before Singapore becomes the 'SV of Asia'," said Mr Chan.
Mr Sin added it is difficult for Singapore to claim the title with competition from bigger markets such as China and India.
Another hindrance to the startup scene here is that most people live with their families, unlike in the US, and this inhibits entrepreneurship and risk appetite, Mr Lauria said.
"The number of start-up teams that live and work out of the same apartment in SV is very high. It's amazing what you can do when you're all forced into a small apartment 24/7," he said.
Mr Lim of PayPal added: "I do feel that like many things, entrepreneurship in Singapore is being driven largely from a top-down approach, and that can't be too healthy."
But many cited Singapore's stable economic and political systems, high cultural acceptance, strong government funding support and startup events such as Echelon and TechVenture, as beneficial in growing its tech ecosystem.
Said Steve Leonard, executive deputy chairman of Singapore's Infocomm Development Authority, at the 2013 TechVenture in September: "It is not Singapore's goal to be another version of SV. We should find something to create for ourselves."
"It is great that Singaporeans are moving to SV. I anticipate that some of them will return home to start their new venture or work for local startups. But as the region's startup hub, it is good for Singapore to have close ties with the Valley," said Mr Tan.
Mr Lauria, who travels frequently to look up the startup scene in each country, said: "Singapore really stood out for me because of the startup community here - it reminds me of SV in terms of openness and enthusiasm. There are few global cities as international and diverse as Singapore, and that's an asset for the startup scene.
"That said, I don't think being the 'SV of Asia' is a great goal to set. Singapore should figure out its place in the region and execute as a startup hub."
(Source: The Business Times)

MARKET SCOOP

Oxley makes inroads into London with S$397.1m property deal
CH Offshore Q1 net profit falls 20%
SingLand Q3 profit down 13% to S$49.4 million
CAO Q3 profit up 65%, thanks to associates
United Industrial Corp Q3 profit up despite lower revenue
F&N plays hardball with bond investors
DBS sees 2013 loans growth at 15%: Piyush
Vallianz posts US$2.14m profit for Q3
Gems TV plans S$571.38m RTO to be agri product trader
(Source: The Business Times)

DBS VICKERS Securities says ...

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP | BUY | TP: S$12.40

Non-interest income significantly improved q-o-q mainly from Great Eastern Holding's (GEH) non-par fund performance as markets recovered
Other fee income was stable despite headwinds in the operating environment during the quarter
Wealth management income fell 12% q-o-q on slower activities; Bank of Singapore's (BoS) assets under management was flat q-o-q but grew 15% y-o-y. Expenses edged lower largely from staff costs
NIM remained stable at 1.63% while loans grew 2% q-o-q and 16% y-o-y, largely driven by its non-S$ portfolio
With a corresponding growth in deposits, loan-to-deposit ratio stayed below 90%
The increase in absolute NPLs came mainly from its Malaysian steel industry portfolio (a couple of other Malaysian banks have showed similar trends)
In Greater China, there was an uptick from the transportation sector, while in Singapore there were small delinquencies in housing loans
Elsewhere, capital ratios were lower due to the redemption of its S$1bn preference shares, which offset lower risk weighted assets
Particularly in Malaysia, revenues were driven by strong Islamic banking income while NIM increased 3bps q-o-q. In Indonesia, NIM rose 10bps to 4.33% with non-interest income as its key earnings driver
OCBC NISP derives most of its funding from its SME customers
We still believe in OCBC's ability to derive a greater boost from its non-interest income franchise, particularly from GEH and BoS
Already firmly established in Singapore and Malaysia, OCBC has introduced its bancassurance model to OCBC NISP, which should pick up speed over time
The BoS franchise is still largely ASEAN-centric
Judging from the early part of 4Q13, activities have resumed, which should provide a positive bias
Management guides for high single-digit loan growth and expects NIM to improve as credit spreads increase, but there may be pockets of funding cost pressures
Credit cost and NPLs should have fairly stable trending patterns over the past six quarters
Maintain BUY, S$12.40 TP based on the Gordon Growth Model with 12% ROE, 5% growth and 9.3% cost of equity equivalent to 1.6x FY14 P/BV

CREDIT SUISSE Securities says ...

OSIM INTERNATIONAL | OUTPERFORM | TP: S$2.50

OSIM reported 3Q13 net profit of S$22.7 mn (-13% QoQ, 16% YoY) in line with our expectations (3Q is seasonally the weakest), 9M13 profit came in 74% of our FY13 estimates
OSIM continues to show strong top-line performance, with 3Q13 marking the 19th consecutive quarter of YoY profit growth
uInfinity, OSIM's super premium massage chair launched in 3Q13 is showing good momentum across all markets, according to management
Our channel checks also indicate strong demand for uInfinity across markets with overall chair volumes improving
uAngel, OSIM's entry level massage chair continues to see very strong demand across markets
OSIM has also refreshed its smaller massage products for the holiday season
We expect strong volumes and revenue pickup in the coming quarters
We increase our EPS estimates by 1-7% on higher sales volumes and TWG consolidation
We expect consensus EPS upgrades to follow. At 13x 2014E P/E, valuations remain attractive
We increase our TP to S$2.50 (from S$2.20). Maintain OUTPERFORM

UOB KAY HIAN says...

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP | BUY | TP: S$11.84

OCBC reported net profit of S$759m for 3Q13 (+5% yoy, +27% qoq), above our expectations of S$688m and consensus estimate of S$651m.
Loan growth moderated to 1.9% qoq in 3Q13 with expansion largely driven by a 17.8% qoq increase from Greater China
Loans in Singapore surprisingly contracted by 1.7% qoq
Loans in Malaysia and Indonesia declined 1.7% and 3.5% qoq respectively due to depreciation of regional currencies
Net interest margin (NIM) was relatively unchanged at 1.63%
Fee income increased 1% qoq and was more resilient than we had expected
Contribution from wealth management decreased 12% qoq but was offset by strong performance from investment banking, where contribution increased 52% qoq
Contribution from Great Eastern rebounded to S$240m (our forecast: S$150m) due to a reversal to mark-to-market (MTM) gains for non-participating fund
Net trading income was inconspicuous at only S$47m
NPL ratio has risen slight from 0.7% to 0.8%
The stress on asset quality came from Malaysia, where NPL ratio has increased from 1.9% to 2.2%
The better performance was largely due to higher-than-anticipated contribution from Great Eastern (refer to RMN dated 27th September)



Wednesday, October 30, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: DBS VickersPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 12.40

Stock Name: RafflesMG
Company Name: RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.78

Stock Name: EzionHldg
Company Name: EZION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OSK-DMGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.18




Market Compass


30 October 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:
30 Oct 2013 ~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.

Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping

Source: Marketwatch




Quote for the day : Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly.
- JOHN F. KENNEDY
Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK :Brokers raise shields with Sky One falling.

[SINGAPORE] Sky One Holdings' collapse on Monday prompted a number of brokers to update their lists of restricted stocks this week, raising questions about why the Singapore Exchange (SGX) did not impose trading curbs as it had done with three other stocks a few weeks earlier.
Trading in shares of Sky One, a logistics provider being targeted in a reverse takeover (RTO) by a coal- mining business, whose stock fell as much as 91 per cent early Monday before being halted, is currently restricted at several brokers, including AmFraser, CIMB, DMG, OCBC Securities and UOB Kay Hian, according to market sources and some of the brokers' own websites.
Sky One shares continued to retreat yesterday, shedding 7.6 per cent, or 0.7 cent, to close at 8.5 cents. The stock had entered the weekend at 47 cents.
"It took two years to climb all the way up to whatever price it was, and all it took was one morning for it to collapse all the way down," one trader said.
(Source: The Business Times)

MARKET SCOOP

Absence of one-time gain weighs on GEH'sQ3 earnings
Norwegian Cruise Line's Q3 earnings up 33%
Forterra Trust sinks to the red with net loss of S$2.34m in Q3
MAS expects wage growth to be strong
Singapore's economy more tied to advanced economies: MAS
Faster job creation in H1 2013, says MAS
(Source: The Business Times)

DBS VICKERS Securities says ...

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP | BUY | TP: S$12.40

Great Eastern Holdings' (GEH) 3Q13 net profit came in at S$283m, a significant rebound from the previous quarter
This was contributed by unrealised mark-to-market gains brought about by the partial recovery in financial markets which normalised interest rates and narrowed credit and swap spreads
Gross premiums grew 11% q-o-q and 32% y-o-y on the back of strong underwriting for life assurance funds
Total weighted new sales improved 6% q-o-q and 38% y-o-y
Better performance from the bancassurance tie-up with OCBC NISP in Indonesia also contributed towards the rise in GEH's total weighted new sales
Elsewhere, new business embedded value was flattish q-o-q but 18% higher y-o-y
The strong recovery of GEH's contribution should reignite positive sentiment on OCBC
Wealth management fees are likely to be softer q-o-q on lower activities but as trade finance loans remain active, this will support fee income
We expect NIM to remain stable, but potentially with very slight pressure from mortgage re-pricing
Recall that OCBC kept its loan growth guidance conservative at a high single digit despite already recording 10% loan growth in 1H13
We have assumed a conservative run rate of 1% loan growth per quarter, with FY13F loan growth at 12%. Loan-to-deposit ratio should stay around 90%
Provisions and expenses should remain stable
No asset quality surprises
Capital is likely to improve with AFS gains recouped over the quarter
We believe OCBC's strong banking operations coupled with the rebound in GEH's performance in addition to its better-than-average asset quality indicators underlines our preference for OCBC
OCBC's Islamic banking business in Malaysia offers an added advantage over UOB in terms of product offerings
OCBC is a BUY with S$12.40 TP (1.6x FY14 BV) based on the Gordon Growth Model with 12% ROE, 5% growth and 9.3% cost of equity

UOB KAY HIAN says ...

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP | BUY | TP: S$3.78

Raffles Medical Group's (RMG) 9M13 net profit of S$41.7m (+14% yoy) is broadly in line with our estimate, accounting for 64% of our full-year estimate
4Q tends to be seasonally stronger (particularly during the holiday periods for non-critical treatment, such as aesthetics and medical screening)
3Q13 top-line grew 8.0% yoy, backed a 9.4% yoy rise in hospital revenue whereas the healthcare services gained only 5.7% yoy due to the loss of contract from Singapore Prison
On a like-for-like comparison, turnover from healthcare services would have risen by more than 10% yoy if the Singapore Prison contract were excluded
RMG has 73 clinics and expects to open another two before this year-end
Despite the upward pressure on costs, RMG continued to contain costs well, with staff costs (49.3% of revenue and within historical average) growing 10.8% yoy, in line with 9M13 top-line growth of 10.7% yoy
During the analyst briefing, management reiterated it is committed to its proposed joint ventures in China
These include a JV with China Merchants to develop an integrated international hospital with 250 beds in Shenzhen and another JV with Shanghai Lujiazui Co to develop an integrated international hospital with 400 beds in Shanghai
We understand RMG will have a 70% stake in these JVs but will have full control over the operations
The group hopes to finalise the terms of these JVs in the next three months
Funding will not be an issue given RMG's strong net cash of S$261.7m after the sale of Thong Sia Building
The group's cash balance continued to rise
As at Sep 13, its net cash balance was S$141.7m (S$0.26/share) compared with S$122.4m (S$0.22/share) as at Jun 13
Its cash could rise further in 4Q13 on the completion of the disposal of Thong Sia
Building for S$120m
Given the capital expenditure of S$80m-100m for expansion works for its flagship hospitals and potential JVs in China, management is unlikely to pay a special dividend
Instead, the group plans to maintain its dividend of at least S$0.045/share
Management highlighted that expansion work on its flagship hospital should commence by 4Q13 or 1Q14 at the latest
Management is undertaking technical studies to ensure disruptions to its existing operations are kept to a minimal during the construction period
Management expects to complete the sale of Thong Sia Building in 4Q13
We understand the estimated non-recurrent gain is S$18m after deducting professional fees, such as independent valuation and brokers' commission
The group remains keen on having a medical centre at Orchard Road and is still on the lookout for potential sites
We maintain our 2013-15 recurrent earnings forecasts and DCF-based target price of S$3.78
We have not included the expected gain of S$18m from the sale of Thong Sia Building as this is a non-recurrent item
Our target price of S$3.78 implies 27.5x 2014F PE, close to its +1SD to mean PE of 28.8x
We think this is deserved, given its strong cash flow generation and healthy financial position which could fund potential M&As or other investments
Meanwhile, 2013-15F ROE of 15.8-16.9% are also higher than its long term
average ROE of 11.0% (1997-2012)
Share price catalysts include: a) better-than-expected 2014-15 earnings, and b) accretive investments and more news flow on its China JVs

OSK DMG Securities says...

EZION HOLDINGS | BUY | TP: S$3.18

EZI has secured a new Letter of Intent (LOI) from an oil major to provide a service rig for three years in South-East Asia
The contract is expected to start in 3QCY15 and EZI will form a joint-venture (JV) company to order and own the rig
We understand that the 50:50 JV will own the rig with an estimated project cost of USD60m
We estimate the latest LOI raised its YTD new charter wins to USD584m (attributable to EZI)
Ever since the company started the liftboat and service rig business, it has won USD2.2bn worth of charters, with an average contract tenure of 4.3 years
We estimate a current backlog of USD1.9bn (including optional extension), which will run up to 2020
EZI will enjoy two source of income from this contract - income from operating the service rig and income from ownership of the asset under the JV
We estimate the LOI could add USD3.4m net profit on a full-year charter
We are maintaining our EPS estimates given insignificant impact (<1%) in our forecast period
Demand for liftboats and service rigs remains strong and we believe the rising acceptance by oil majors in the region could lead to more deployment opportunities
We estimate EZI has room for USD200m/USD500m new project capex in FY14/15 respectively, while keeping its net gearing at around 1.1x
This excludes any issuance of equity or perpetual securities
Our TP is based on 16x blended FY13F/14F P/Es. Key re-rating catalysts are the company's: i) EPS upgrades from new contracts, and ii) positive earnings momentum



Friday, October 11, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 11.86

Stock Name: ST Engg
Company Name: SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD
Research House: DMGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.70

Stock Name: SMRT
Company Name: SMRT CORPORATION LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.30




Market Compass


11 October 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:
11 Oct 2013 ~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.

Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping

Source: Marketwatch




Quote for the day : And the things that we fear are a weapon to be held against us.
- IAN RUSH
Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK : Contingency plans in focus after SingTel fire. IDA to conduct 'thorough study' of incident, even as telco sorts through the mess

[SINGAPORE] SingTel's engineers spent the day piecing together fibre optic strands by hand amid charred post-fire debris at the telco's Bukit Panjang facility yesterday.
Finding the cause of Wednesday's fire and the subsequent service disruptions, however, will preoccupy the firm during the coming weeks.
The fire, which had disrupted services for consumers and businesses over the past two days, had burnt 149 fibre optic cables in a chamber at the telco's Bukit Panjang exchange, 81 of which were OpenNet's. The other two chambers in the building were not affected.
Fibre cable repairs for corporate customers were completed last night, while the remaining services were on track for restoration by 7am today.
There is no preliminary estimate for the financial fallout of the fire or the service disruption, SingTel's CEO Consumer Singapore, Yuen Kuan Moon, told the media in a briefing at ComCentre yesterday.
In response to questions about what could have caused the fire and what role, if any, the facility's fire suppression system had played, Mr Yuen said, "We are currently investigating. Our priority is to first ensure that service is being restored."
In the coming weeks, the questions will begin in earnest. Within the telco, an inquiry will be convened to determine the cause of the fire and how its distribution network can be reinforced, Mr Yuen said.
SingTel also defended its business continuity plans yesterday, saying that it has physical location diversity - the Bukit Panjang building is one of nine such locations in Singapore - and electronic diversity, in which some switches are replicated.
"Unfortunately, in the case of the Bukit Panjang office, the damage caused by the fire is physical," the telco said.
The restoration task was made harder because the colour codes used to differentiate one kind of cable from another had been razed off by the fire. Engineers had to either divert cables to an undamaged chamber or cut out burnt portions and splice together the undamaged fibres - each thinner than a human hair - by hand.
Each cable can carry 96, 192 or 288 fibre strands, each strand supporting up to 16 corporate customers or 24 residential ones.
SingTel will not be the only entity asking hard questions of itself. The industry regulator, the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (IDA), will carry out a "thorough study" of the incident, said Minister for Communications and Information Yaacob Ibrahim yesterday. "We have to wait for the police report . . . and then we will start our investigation," he said, speaking at SingTel's Bukit Panjang building yesterday.
An IDA investigation has the potential to result in mammoth fines. Just last week, M1 was fined a history-making $1.5 million for the outage of its 2G and 3G mobile phone services in January.
Dr Yaacob called what happened on Wednesday a "major incident that we are concerned about". Telephone exchanges are considered critical pieces of infrastructure, he noted.
Other quarters, too, will look askance at SingTel. DBS, which saw some of its branches and ATMs affected on Wednesday, told The Business Times that it has a "diverse network contingency plan that ensures minimal disruption to our businesses in the event of an incident such as the fire at SingTel's Bukit Panjang exchange".
DBS is "working with SingTel to understand why the network contingency plan was not effective for the small proportion of DBS/POSB branches that were impacted," the bank's spokeswoman added.
Two of UOB's branches and 11 of OCBC's ATMs were also affected by SingTel's fire on Wednesday. All three banks saw services resume either that night itself or early yesterday morning before the start of business.
"Our branches were not impacted as our network was designed to be able to be supported by a secondary exchange if the primary one fails," an OCBC spokesman said.
BT understands that a bank's ATM might be able to shrug off a service disruption if it has a backup network line, as long as both the main and backup line are not connected to the same exchange.
Yesterday, Dr Yaacob said the IDA had always been concerned about the need for backup systems, even before the SingTel fire happened. "We've been looking at it closely. Every incident will be a learning point for us . . . clearly, there are things (that) we will begin to learn because the systems are becoming very complex," he said.
By yesterday, the collateral damage from the fire appeared to have been contained. By 6pm, OpenNet had restored service to 25 per cent of M1's 1,000 affected fibre broadband customers.
StarHub, which leases optical fibre capacity from SingTel, said that cable TV, cable broadband and digital voice services for affected customers were fully restored yesterday afternoon, while 36 per cent of its fibre broadband services had been restored by yesterday evening.
(Source: The Business Times)

MARKET SCOOP

Lian Beng Q1 net profit down 31%
S'pore bourse probes short-selling in Blumont, Asiasons
Merger talks between LionGold and smaller miner IRL halted
Grave digger to gold digger: S'pore business shifts feed governance worries
Trafigura renews Asian term loan facility at US$1.76b
Resale prices of non-landed private homes down; HDB COV lowest in 4 yrs
(Source: The Business Times)

OCBC Securities says ...

SMRT CORPORATION | HOLD | TP: S$1.30

The free MRT ride scheme introduced on 24 Jun has seen rail ridership figures for Jul and Aug exceed 60m rides for the first time in SMRT's history
The incentive to promote travel to 16 designated MRT stations in the city area before 8am has also aided in the alleviation of a congested rail system during the morning peak periods
In terms of financials, SMRT will bear the cost of free travel up to S$5m and the
relevant authorities will compensate the company for the remainder
We expect SMRT's upcoming 2Q14 results to be similar with 1Q14: slight revenue growth with higher operating expenses - namely staff, depreciation and repair/maintenance - causing operating profit to decline by double-digits YoY
On a segmental basis, bus operations will likely extend its streak of 11 consecutive quarters of losses (but we assume no asset impairments); rail profitability will be lower as well
The taxi, rental and advertising segments should stay positive and provide some consolation to SMRT
SMRT is unlikely to see an uptick in its share price due to the lack of a fare increase (delay by the Fare Review Mechanism Committee) and pressures on operating expenses
However, since the end of Aug, SMRT's share price has stabilised between a tight band of 1.29-1.30, which has helped to arrest its slide of 10% following its 1Q14 results
The lower frequency of bad publicity has definitely aided the company, and we believe that the street has already factored in the majority of the negative expectations for FY14 as well as concerns over capex requirements
As SMRT is currently trading close to our unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.30, we upgrade the counter to HOLD on valuation grounds ahead of its 2Q14 results release at the end of the month

DMG OSK Securities says ...

ST ENGINEERING | BUY | TP: S$4.70

ST Engineering has announced that its electronics arm, ST Electronics has secured SGD416m of contracts for rail electronics, satellite communications and communications projects in 3Q2013
Out of this, about SGD238m was for communications and electronics systems, advance IT systems and rail electronics solutions, while SGD178m was for satcoms products and broadband communications solutions
STE's orderbook stood at SGD12.7bn as of end Jun 2013, out of which about SGD2.8bn is expected to be delivered in 2H2013
We estimate the new contracts lifted net order book to SGD13.1bn, equivalent to 2x annual revenue
We have a BUY on ST Engineering with a DCF derived TP of SGD4.70
We like STE for its solid fundamentals: 31% ROE, 10- EPS CAGR of 5%, and 4.2% yield. STE currently trades at 20.7x FY13 P/E, below its historical peak of 24.5x

UOB KAY HIAN says...

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP | BUY | TP: S$11.86

Bank of Singapore (BOS), OCBC's private banking arm, experienced a lower volume of client activities in July and August
Investors have become more risk averse since concerns over the tapering of QE3 surfaced
Clients have switched from exotic structured products to savings products, such as
fixed deposits
Nevertheless, OCBC continues to benefit from inflows due to wealth creation within Asia and investors seeking to capture global opportunities, which has a positive impact on transaction volume
Assets under management (AUM) have expanded from US$23b during BOS' inception to US$46b over the last three years
Management targets to double AUM to US$80b over the next three years
OCBC's wealth management business also benefits from growth in bancassurance, where it dominates with a market share of about 34% in Singapore
According to The Business Times, OCBC's bancassurance business grew in excess of 50% yoy based on weighted premium in 2012
Endowment products were the largest contributor while mortgage insurance also gained popularity
OCBC NISP is conservatively managed with a low NPL ratio of 0.4%, based on MAS
Guidelines
Management does not see signs of stress and expects NPL ratio to remain low
SMEs, corporations and consumers account for 50%, 20% and 30% of total loans
OCBC NISP provides rupiah funding for domestic industries, such as tobacco, textiles, white goods and trading, which are less affected by the plunge in the value of rupiah
Indonesia contributed to 8.4% of total income in 2Q13
Management guided high single-digit loan growth for 2013 despite already having achieved a 10.3% growth in 1H13
A third of the growth in 1H13 came from short-dated trade finance facilities, where contribution could soften in 2H13
The ringgit and the rupiah have depreciated 4% and 15.1% against the Singapore
dollar in 3Q13 respectively
Malaysia and Indonesia accounted for 15.6% and 7.6% of total loans as of Jun 13
The depreciation of regional currencies will dampen loan growth in 2H13
CASA (current and savings account) ratio has expanded from 46% as at Jun 12 to 50.1% as at Jun 13
The improvement was driven by a 26.6% expansion in current accounts
OCBC has captured more operating accounts from multinational companies through providing cash management services
Wealth management business remains resilient
While transaction volume for existing clients is affected by higher risk aversion, contributions from new clients have increased due to inflows and expansion of AUM
In Indonesia, asset quality was resilient as OCBC NISP is conservatively managed and
provides rupiah funding for domestic industries
We maintain our earnings forecasts
Our target price of S$11.86 is based on 1.71x P/B, derived from Gordon Growth Model (ROE: 11.2, required return: 7.8% and growth: 3.0%)



Wednesday, September 4, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: Kep REIT
Company Name: KEPPEL REIT
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.46

Stock Name: Olam
Company Name: OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.45

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 10.09




Market Compass


04 September 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:
04 Sept 2013 ~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.

Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping



Source: Marketwatch

Quote for the day : Wealthy men can't live in an island that is encircled by poverty. We all breathe the same air. We must give a chance to everyone, at least a basic chance. - AYRTON SENNA
Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK :Court quashes Thomson View sale

[SINGAPORE] A proposed $590 million collective sale of Thomson View Condominium is scuppered after the High Court found that its marketing agent's offer of more than $548,000 in incentive payments to four owners to get a requisite 80 per cent majority amounted to bad faith.
Justice Andrew Ang, in a 30-page decision released yesterday, found that HSR International Realtors "egregiously breached its duty to avoid any possible conflict of interest", and also "breached its duty of transparency" by failing to disclose the incentive payments to the Collective Sales Committee (CSC) and other owners.
As such, the four owners should not be counted in the requisite 80 per cent majority for the sale to go through, he ruled. Discounting these owners, the 80 per cent consent threshold would not be reached; the plaintiffs were therefore not even in a position to apply for court approval of the sale, he said.
Yesterday's ruling came two weeks after the Court of Appeal upheld a decision by Justice Belinda Ang to disallow a $33 million en bloc sale of Harbour View Gardens because she found its marketing agent's offer of a $200,000 inducement to a couple to join the sale is "commercially unacceptable", and that its CSC had failed to act in good faith. (Source: The Business Times)

MARKET SCOOP

Govt mulls underground version of Master Plan
EMA fines PowerGas $1.5m for supply disruption
$200m raised for needy students at 2 unis as LKY turns 90
Havelock Rd hotel site triggered fromReserve List
Singapore Aug manufacturing activity expansion slows

(Source: The Business Times)

UOB KAY HIAN says...

KEPPEL REIT | BUY | TP: S$1.46

Valuations are now more compelling as Keppel REIT (KREIT) offers a yield of 6.6%, 40bp over the average 6.2% yield for office S-REITs
With physical office transactions at 3-3.5% cap rates, office REITs offer better value for investors to gain exposure to economic growth and improvements in office rentals
Its recent private placement (completed on 6 August) of 95m new units at S$1.26 per unit raised gross S$120m (S$118m after fees)
The proceeds were used to fund the S$192m acquisition of 8 Exhibition Street in Melbourne, Australia, and remove the near-term equity overhang following the
recent acquisition
Mirvac and KREIT recently announced that 8 Chifley Square in Sydney is 70% pre-committed ahead of its completion in Oct 13
This is 14ppt up from Apr 13's (56% pre-committed) and reflects positive leasing sentiment for high-quality office space despite slowing economic growth due to a moderation in commodity prices
The new tenant, data analytics firm Quantium, joins other tenants including law firm Corrs Chambers Westgarth and insurance leader QBE Insurance Group, at 8 Chifley. Occupancies and pre-commitments for the other Australia properties (275 George Street,
77 King Street and Old Treasury Building) in KREIT's portfolio are all above 97%
About 90% of KREIT's portfolio by valuation is centred in Singapore, despite recent
acquisitions in Australia
Among office REITs, KREIT has the highest quality office portfolio with over 92% of its Singapore portfolio located in the Raffles Place and Marina Bay precincts
Following the latest distribution-in-specie of 8 KREIT units for every 100 Keppel Corp shares, we estimate Keppel Corp has pared down its stake to a mere 0.1% (~3.7m shares)
Keppel Land remains a substantial shareholder, with a 46% stake in KREIT
Although there could still be some near-term weakness when Keppel Corp's shareholders receive their KREIT units on 13 September, the previous distribution-in-specie on 8 May marked a 6.8% one-week rally in the share price as new unit holders did not divest of their KREIT units
We view any near-term weakness as a good opportunity to accumulate KREIT
We expect Grade-A office rentals to rise 8% yoy in 2014 after bottoming in 2013
Office rentals in 2Q13 remained unchanged qoq at S$9.55psf pm, slowing from the average 3.4% quarterly decline in 2012
We expect office demand to rebound to 2.1m sf p.a. in 2013-17, while demolitions could remove over 60% of upcoming supply over the next two years
As MBFC Tower 3 achieves close to 80% occupancy, and following the positive leasing momentum for OFC, we believe MBFC Tower 3 will be leased by end-13
Any acquisition could be supported through asset divestments, potentially strata-office units in Prudential Tower, as demand for strata-office space remains buoyant
Space at Prudential Tower is valued at S$2,200psf, while strata units at Suntec City are transacting at S$2,750psf
Key risks remain the relatively high gearing of 44% post equity fund raising and the acquisition of 8 Exhibition Street, although further equity fund raising will likely be paired with acquisitions
We upgrade the stock to a BUY (from HOLD) with an unchanged target price of S$1.46, based on dividend discount model (required rate of return: 7.1%, terminal growth: 2.2%)

OCBC Securities says ...

OLAM INTERNATIONAL | HOLD | TP: S$1.45
Muddy Waters (MW) has just issued a new report on Olam International Limited (Olam), titling its "Not Changing the Old Ways" following the release of its FY13 results
The report again raised issues over transparency and corporate governance, as well as remaining skeptical if Olam will operate differently in the future; this given that there have been no changes to Olam's board since MW's initial report
In particular, the viability of the Gabon fertilizer project was called into question, where MW believed that Tata Chemical (TCL) is highly unlikely to participate in the project
We note that during the results briefing, Olam stated that its relationship with TCL is "still strong" but added that they are "still discussing and have not reached closing conditions"
MW now recommends that Olam "fall on the sword" and terminate the project, despite spending significant money on dredging
In any case, our current forecasts do not include any contributions from Gabon as we have always held the conservative view and would only include the project if it has achieved financial close
Recall that the Gabon project was first raised in Apr 2011 where Olam announced
that TCL will invest US$290m to acquire a 25.1% stake
While we expect the new MW report to weigh slightly on sentiment, we are maintaining our forecasts for now, given that we have already pared our FY14F core net profit figure by 16% recently
Maintain HOLD with an unchanged S$1.45 fair value (based on 10x FY14F EPS) for now

CIMB Securities says...

OCBC | UNDERPERFORM | TP: S$10.09

Our GGM-based target price of S$10.09 (based on 1.27x CY13 P/BV) remains unchanged
Maintain Underperform, with the de-rating catalysts of rising interest rates, poor investment appetite from private banking clients and eventually, rising credit costs
OCBC remains our least preferred Singaporean bank
In Aug, 10-year SGS yields rose by ~30bp and 10-year US treasury yields rose by 20bp
Talk of tapering has intensified
The US Fed is widely expected to scale back QE by 4Q13
When interest rates rise, OCBC's insurance earnings will be dragged down as non-par gains subside
OCBC's 2012 ROE beat peers because GEH's accounting earnings were buoyed by the rising bond market
The reverse is now true
We expect OCBC's ROE to lag peers now, making it difficult to justify current valuations
If OCBC's non-interest income engines were more diversified, then there would be some support from transactional fee income
Our findings show that it has lagged peers in trade fees, loan fees and investment-related fee growth
The only fee streams that OCBC excels at are wealth management (WM) and insurance
The recent guidance that private banking flows have been slower than normal does not foster confidence that WM will cushion the lower insurance contribution
The worst credit quality problems of Singaporean banks typically do not emanate from their Singaporean loan books
In 1998, it was Indonesian loans
In 2008, it was OECD loans and investment securities (CDO, bank debt)
OCBC was top in 2009's asset quality class because it did not have these credits
However, as OCBC currently has the highest exposure to problematic Indonesia and India, it is likely that its NPL will deteriorate to the same level as its peers'
Coming from especially low levels, increasing credit costs will pose a potential headwind to earnings



Friday, May 3, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: Broadway
Company Name: BROADWAY INDUSTRIAL GROUP LTD
Research House: DBS VickersPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.30

Stock Name: Venture
Company Name: VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
Research House: NomuraPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.20

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 12.02




Market Compass


03 May 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:
03 May 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.

Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping




Source: Marketwatch

Quote for the day :The brain is a wonderful organ; it starts working the moment you get up in the morning and does not stop until you get into the office.
- ROBERT FROST

Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK:China PMI dips to 50.4 on weak export orders. Pull-back in HSBC index likely to add to concerns over short-term risks

[BEIJING] China's factory-sector growth eased in April as new export orders fell for the first time this year, a private survey showed yesterday, suggesting the eurozone recession and sluggish US demand may be risks to China's economic recovery.
The final HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.4 in April from March's 51.6 and was largely in line with a flash reading last week of 50.5.
China's official PMI on Wednesday painted a similar picture, falling to 50.6 in April from an 11-month high of 50.9 in March as new export orders fell.
The pull-back in both the official and HSBC PMIs are likely to add to concerns over risks to China's economy in the short term, although most analysts expect a steady and gentle recovery this year, aided by government support.

MARKET SCOOP

Taiwan cable firm's S'pore IPO aims to raise S$1.38b
UOB Q1 profit up 4.9%
Genting S'pore's Q1 net falls 44%
Sing Investments Q1 profit falls 22%
Elec & Eltek Q1 profit falls 28%
S'pore April PMI dips to 50.3, indicates slower growth
ST Engg's aerospace arm buys Turbo Mach for US$250k


DBS VICKERS Securities says...

BROADWAY INDUSTRIAL GROUP | HOLD | TP: S$0.30

1Q13 formed 4% of FY13F, if excluding forex and one-off items, Broadway would have just achieved break-even with S$0.2m profits, which is significantly lower than our S$2m estimate despite higher-than-expected sales
Weaker sales (-23% y-o-y) and operating losses (S$3.3m) at HDD (57% of group sales) dragged down group performance
Foam Plastics was stellar as EBIT quadrupled to S$6.7m on a 37% y-o-y sales growth, thanks to last quarter's order push-back
Unfortunately, it is insufficient to offset HDD's decline
Near term, HDD would be flat-line and Foam Plastics could scale back as quarterly orders normalise
Broadway has started production of stamped parts for smartphone OEMs in South Korea and Taiwan
New CEO JC Lee plans to focus on1) developing new business to diversify from HDD; 2) driving optimisation and automation to improve margins
In view of volatile earnings during this period of recovery, we have re-pegged the valuation base to 0.6xPB, deriving TP of S$0.30

NOMURA Securities says...

VENTURE CORP | BUY | TP: S$9.20

Venture reported 1Q13 net profit of SGD28.0mn (-26.0% q-q, -21.0% yy), 21% below our expectation of SGD35.5mn
While we believe Venture could see a 2Q13F sales growth incrementally better than peers on higher contribution from Oclaro, overall demand environment remains weak
We believe, margins are unlikely to see full recovery till a meaningful portion of Oclaro business gets ramped, probably by end-2013F
Ventures revenues dropped q-q across nearly all major segments
Venture noted that it continues to focus on increasing its market share from existing customers and winning new programmes and customers
The company generated a mere SGD9.7mn in operating cash flows and SGD5.7mn in free cash flows in 1Q13 which puts focus on sustainability of dividends
At 2013F dividend yield of 6.6% with 2012 dividend payout to go ex-date on 5th May 2013, that reason still stands firm
The stock has declined 1.8% over the last 3 months (MSCI Singapore: +3.7%) and is currently trading at an FY13F PE of 13.6x and PBV of 1.2x


UOB KAY HIAN says...

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP | BUY | TP: S$12.02

OCBC reported a net profit of S$696m for 1Q13 (-16% yoy, +5% qoq), slightly below our forecast of S$720m
OCBC achieved healthy loan growth of 3.1% qoq, driven by expansion of 3.8% qoq in Singapore
NIM contracted by a severe 6bp sequentially to 1.64% due to refinancing for housing loans
Fee income increased 15% yoy to S$316m
The main growth driver was wealth management, which expanded 17% yoy to S$105m and accounted for one-third of total fee income
Net trading income was significantly lower at S$56m after five consecutive quarters with sizeable profits
OCBC's 1Q13 performance was "off colour" with net interest income and non-interest income coming in slightly below expectations
We have cut our net profit forecast for 2013 and 2014 by 8.1% and 8.8% respectively due to lower NIM and higher staff costs
We have lowered our target price for OCBC to S$12.02, based on P/B of 1.67x, derived from Gordon Growth Model (ROE: 11.0%, required return: 7.8% and growth: 3.0%)



Tuesday, February 19, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.60

Stock Name: ST Engg
Company Name: SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.12




Market Compass


19 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:

19 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - Trading For A Living

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.


Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping




Source: Marketwatch

Quote for the day : To be a good investment banker you have to have a good sense of the absurd

- PETER J. SOLOMON



Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK: Charoen ends offer with 90.3% of F&N. He may take F&N private to gain operational flexibility: analyst

THAI tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi ended his bid for Fraser and Neave (F&N) with enough shares to force a delisting of the conglomerate. Mr Charoen's $9.55-per-share pre-dividend offer, made through private vehicle TCC Assets, closed at 5.30pm yesterday with acceptances worth 42.1 per cent of F&N's shares


MARKET SCOOP

Ezion secures charter contract of US$79.9m

Indofoodbuys 15% stake in China Minzhong Food

Lian Beng clinches S$117m condo contract

Soup Restaurant doubles full-year net profit

Tiger Airways flew 42% more passengers in Jan



DBS VICKERS Securities says...

ST ENGINEERING | BUY | TP: S$4.40


FY12 net profit of S$576m (+9% y-o-y) in line; final dividend of 13.8Scts (FY12: 12.5Scts)
Upside to end-FY12 orderbook of S$12.1bn from recent Singapore navy contract
MRO revenues recovering; potential for upside surprise from pick up in US operations
Valuations have not peaked; maintain BUY with higher TP of S$4.40


OSK DMG Securities says...

OCBC | NEUTRAL | TP: S$9.60

OCBC reported 4Q12 net profit of SGD 663m, up 12% y-o-y. However, this is 8% lower versus 3Q12's core SGD 724m - there were 3Q12 gains from sale of stakes in F&N & APB
Whilst we are positive on management guidance of high single-digit 2013 loan growth, further NIM compression could hurt earnings
We raised FY13F net profit by 5% to SGD 2.67b as we raised insurance income expectations and lowered provision assumptions
Consequently, we raised our target price to SGD9.60, which is pegged to 1.35x 2013 book


UOB KAY HIAN says...

ST ENGINEERING | HOLD | TP: S$4.12

Flat 4Q12 but still an admirable 9.2% full-year growth
Strong operating cash flow supportive of dividends
S$6b in orders were secured in 2012 but STE could have already secured S$2b ytd
All segments showed revenue and PBT growth but provisions a cause for concern
ST Marine expanding into ship repair at its US Yard
Guidance for higher revenue and PBT growth for 2013


Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Citi upgrades UOB and OCBC

Stock Name: UOB
Company Name: UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
Research House: CitigroupPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 20.30

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: CitigroupPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.75



Citigroup upgraded Singapore banks United Overseas Bank to ‘buy’ from ‘sell’ and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp
to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’, citing favourable valuations if net interest margins stabilize and macro data improves in the coming quarters.

While low interest rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing will cap improvements in net interest margins, they may help banks generate healthy treasury and markets income, allowing provisions to remain below normalised levels.

Citi prefers UOB, which has experience dealing with balance sheet issues and looks well positioned to capture fee growth opportunities in the region. It raised its target price for UOB to $20.30 from $18.10.

Both OCBC and UOB need to drive higher contributions from its franchises in Southeast Asia to mitigate pressure on net interest margins, Citi said, increasing its target price for OCBC to $9.75 from $9.15.

By 1:47 p.m., UOB shares were up 1.2% at $18.26, and have gained 19.6% since the start of the year. OCBC rose 0.8% to $9.22, and is up 17.8% since the start of the year, against the Straits Times Index’s 13.7% gain.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

DBS trims target prices for UOB, OCBC

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: DBS VickersPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.70

Stock Name: UOB
Company Name: UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
Research House: DBS VickersPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 19.70



DBS Vickers has trimmed its earnings estimates for Singapore banks for the next two years due to a weaker economic outlook, and cut its target prices for United Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

Shares of UOB were down 0.2% at $18.57, but have surged 21.6% since the start of the year, outperforming the benchmark Straits Times Index’s 15% gain. OCBC fell 0.1% to $9.23, but have risen 17.9% year-to-date.

The brokerage has lowered OCBC’s target price to $10.70 from $11 and UOB’s to $19.70 from $21, but prefers OCBC for its fee income from its private bank unit Bank of Singapore andinsurer Great Eastern. It maintains a ‘buy’ rating on OCBC and has a ’hold’ on UOB.

DBS Vickers expects Singapore banks to see slower loan growth due to weaker economic growth and the recent property cooling measures introduced by the government. It trimmed its 2013-2014 loan growth rate to 8% from 10% and cut its earnings estimates by 4-7% over the same period.

Pressure on net interest margins are likely to continue, with a hike in Singapore interbank offer rates unlikely until 2015, DBS said.

“Earnings momentum is likely to soften as we go into 2013. As such, we expect banks to trade range-bound and remain well supported by decent dividend yields of 3-4%,” DBS said.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Further upside for Singapore banks limited: Macquarie

Stock Name: UOB
Company Name: UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
Research House: MacQuariePrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 20.79

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: MacQuariePrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.41

Stock Name: DBS
Company Name: DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: MacQuariePrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 14.56



Further upside for Singapore banks will be limited as growth momentum eases in 2H12 and beyond, Macquarie says. “The stocks are no longer as compelling value ideas as they were earlier this year, but their solid balance sheets and cash yields should sustain valuations.” It keeps the sector at Neutral.

It expects the sector’s 3Q12 operating earnings to rise 18% on-year, mainly on a low 3Q11 base for OCBC and UOB, with earnings to decline 2% on-quarter, amid tightening margins and slowing loan growth. It notes downside risk from credit costs as the city-state enters a “technical recession,” while slowing GDP growth could pressure the SGD, reducing the cash-yield’s attractiveness.

“But overall, we think that the sector is still defensive and on base case assumptions any valuation downside should be limited.” It keeps UOB as its top pick as it has been the most conservative on organic growth and is the least likely to engage in value-destructive M&A; it rates UOB Outperform with $20.79 target. It sets OCBC’s target at $9.41 and DBS’ at $14.56, rating both Neutral.

OCBC is down 1.1% at $9.37, UOB is down 1.7% at $19.19, while DBS is down 1% to $14.06.

Monday, September 24, 2012

DBS only Singapore bank to own: JPMorgan

Stock Name: DBS
Company Name: DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: JP Morgan ChasePrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 18.50

Stock Name: UOB
Company Name: UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
Research House: JP Morgan ChasePrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 19.50

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: JP Morgan ChasePrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.40



DBS is the only stock to own in an otherwise lackluster Singapore banking sector, JPMorgan says, tipping switching out of UOB and OCBC.

DBS’ “bottom-up improvements will have bigger impact on ROE over next two years as top-down trends remain unpromising. Year-to-date, DBS has returned 30%, despite trailing peers post Danamon deal announcement. We expect that overhang to be addressed in the next three to six months, which along with ongoing turnaround should lead to re-rating.”

It rates DBS at Overweight with $18.50 target price. It raises UOB’s target to $19.50 from $18.10 after revising earnings, keeping a Neutral call and recommending investors book profit. It rates OCBC at Neutral with $9.40 target, noting the stock’s rally was based on factors with a low probability of recurrence.

UOB is down 0.1% at $19.64, OCBC is down 0.9% at $9.27 and DBS is down 0.8% at $14.39.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

UOBKH - SP: OCBC 1Q12 Flash Note - Higher fee income, lower provisioning

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 11.98




OCBC BUY

Price/Target: S$9.58/S$11.98 Mkt Cap: US$26,436m Daily Vol: US$29.5m 1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$9.88/S$7.68


2Q12: Higher fee income, lower provisioning

Year to 31 Dec (S$m)
2Q12
yoy %
qoq %
Remarks
Net Interest Income
931
12.6
-2.1
NIM contracted by 9bp.
Non-Interest Income
596
1.7
-29.6
Fee income higher-than-anticipated.
Total Income
1527
8.1
-15.0
Operating Expense
(661)
7.0
5.8
Pre-Provision Profit
866
8.9
-26.1
Provisions
(38)
-32.1
-60.4
NPL ratio declined marginally 0.9%.
Net Profit
648
12.3
-22.1
1Q12 earnings included S$56m gain from disposal of a property in Melbourne.
EPS (¢)
17.5
10.1
-27.7
BVPS (S$)
6.33
8.0
0.2
Key Ratios (%):
2Q12
1Q12
2Q11
Net Interest Margin
1.77
1.86
1.87
More placements in interbank.
Loan/Deposit Ratio
85.3
84.4
89.1
Core Equity Tier-1 CAR
11.1
11.6
11.9
NPL Ratio
0.9
1.0
0.8

  • OCBC report net profit of S$648m (-22% qoq and +12% yoy) for 2Q12, ahead of our forecast of S$608m and consensus estimate of S$616m. Upside surprises came from higher fee income and lower provisioning.
  • Adopting a conservative posture:Loan grew 2.8% qoq and 14% yoy, driven by 3.8% qoq expansion for Singapore and 10.3% qoq expansion for Indonesia. Net interest margin contracted 9bp on a sequential basis to 1.77% as deposits collected were largely placed out in the interbank market.
  • Growth from non-interest income:Fee income expanded 16% qoq and 6% yoy driven by wealth management, loans related fees and investment banking. Life insurance contribution income of S$71m while trading income made positive contribution of S$75m.
  • Muted provisioning. Total provisions were lower at S$38m compared to S$96m in 1Q12. Specific provisions were muted at only S$13m. This is not surprising given the large increase in NPLs that are not overdue, especially during the CEO transition period. NPL ratio declined slightly from 1.0% to 0.9% indicating resilient asset quality.
  • OCBC has declared interim dividend of 16 cents/share, higher than 15 cents/share declared last year. The scrip dividend scheme does not apply to the interim dividend.