Monday, September 3, 2012

DBS Vickers raises SembMarine order-win forecast



Major Petrobras orders offer SembMarine strong visibility from a record orderbook, DBS Vickers says, noting FY12 order wins are at $9.1 billion, exceeding pre-crisis peaks. The potential order pipeline remains robust amid rising rig day rates and tightening rig capacity, it says, raising its FY13 order-win assumption to $5.0 billion from $4.0 billion; it also expects FY14 order wins of $5.0 billion.

It adds, it believes SembMarine is a key contender for two harsh-environment Cat-J jackups for Statoil worth more than US$1 billion; it notes more potential Petrobras contracts are in the pipeline, including 4-6 more FPSO projects and accommodation and maintenance units.

It expects earnings to bottom in FY12 before recovering 17% on-year in FY13 and 4% in FY14, with the recovery starting in 2H12 on higher turnover and improved margins. It expects SembMarine is likely to maintain a 70% dividend-payout ratio, translating to FY12-13 dividend
yields of 4.4%-5.2%. It keeps a Buy call with $5.85 target.

The stock is up 0.4% at $5.02.

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