Thursday, February 28, 2013

OIR BITES: Ezion secures LOI worth up to US$45.3m, details of financing out later

Stock Name: EzionHldg
Company Name: EZION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.33




OIR BITES

28 Feb 2013
Ezion secures LOI worth up to US$45.3m, details of financing out later

Dear TRs,

We attended Ezion's briefing this morning following its trading halt.

Here are the key takeaways:

Ezion has received a letter of intent with a contract value of up to about US$45.3m over a two-year period to provide a liftboat for a SE Asian based national oil company. The unit will be deployed by 3Q13.

Ezion will be acquiring jack-up construction vessel, Nora, at a substantial discount off its original built price of US$240m. We estimate that the discount is as huge as 60%, and according to management, the rig's market value today would be around US$200m. The unit was supposed to be completed by Drydocks World as early as Nov 2010, but due to financial difficulties of the customer and also the yard, the unit was left hanging.

This is a huge asset with a deck area of 2500sqm, max working depth 90m, max lifting capacity 1500 tonnes, accommodation capacity of 260 men and equipped with DP2 capabilities. Besides supporting oil and gas activities, it can also undertake windfarm installation work. Management calls it a "Rolls Royce' among liftboats.

Including the rig acquisition cost, the total project cost for Phase 1 of this liftboat will be US$110m, while an additional US$30m would be spent for Phase 2. After the rig is completed in Phase 1, it will be deployed in SE Asian waters for about a year. It will then be replaced by another liftboat of Ezion to satisfy the two-year contract period. During Phase 2, the huge liftboat will undergo further modification (four months) to ensure that it meets North Sea standards. It is then expected to be able to command higher rates of ~US$80-85k/day for a bareboat charter in the North Sea.

For the US$110m required for Phase 1, DBS will provide a loan available for drawdown of up to US$85m. Assuming Ezion takes the maximum loan, its equity portion of US$25m will be satisfied by issuing DBS shares of Ezion. There will be no cash outlay for Ezion. Details on the final structure will be released by tonight, hence Ezion's trading halt will continue till then.

We estimate an ROE of about 30% for this project, which would increase subsequently if Ezion is able to deploy the unit in the North Sea at good day rates.

Management is still optimistic about the upcoming contract pipeline.

We currently have a BUY rating with S$2.33 fair value estimate on Ezion.


Wednesday, February 27, 2013

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: Wilmar
Company Name: WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Research House: Deutsche BankPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.70

Stock Name: RafflesMG
Company Name: RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.24




Market Compass


27 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:

27 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - Trading For A Living

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.


Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping





Source: Marketwatch

Quote for the day: Subtlety may deceive you; integrity never will

- OLIVER CROMWELL


Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK:Private banks see AUM surge as Asian wealth keeps
Growing

[SINGAPORE] Private banks here have had an outstanding 2012, including the international ones, as the rich once again entrusted their ever increasing mountains of cash to the industry. Last year some banks reported their fastest growth in assets under management (AUM), one by as much as 70 per cent.



MARKET SCOOP

Mapletreeraises US$1.3b, pricing IPO at top end: sources

Hong Leong Finance FY2012 profit falls 22%

Keppel O&M wins S$200m in new contracts

STX OSV's Q4 net profit dives 81%

Sembcorp Q4 net profit falls 19%

GLP shares plunge after GIC cuts stake

Wheelock makes S$30.8m loss in Q4


DEUTSCHE BANK says...

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL | HOLD | TP: S$3.70

FY12 net income from operations down 23% yoy to US$1,167m
Sound long-term fundamentals; near-term risks from weak CPO prices
Downgrading Wilmar to Hold on valuation
Following our earnings revision, our SOTP-based target price has been raised from S$3.50 to S$3.70
Downside risks: untimely purchases of raw materials; unfavorable regulations in China; poor weather affecting crop supplies
Upside risks: economic recovery, leading to stronger demand; significant decrease in production costs; easing of competition from China


UOB KAY HIAN Securities says...

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP | HOLD | TP: S$3.24

Reported S$311.6m (+14.2% yoy) in revenue for the full-year 2012 on the back of positive contributions from all segments
Hospital revenue increased by 16.1% yoy to S$194.3m while Healthcare Services revenue grew 11.4% yoy to S$114.6m
Operating profit of S$66.4m represents an 11.5% yoy growth and PATMI of S$56.8m registers a 12.8% yoy growth
RMG declared a final dividend of 3.5 S cents/ share (2011: 3.0 S cents), bringing the full-year total dividend to 4.5 S cents/ share (2011: 4.0 S cents)


DBS VICKERS Securities says...

NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES | BUY | TP: S$1.45

Look beyond the losses
Losses in 4Q12 were higher than expected, but current freight rates have rebounded from 4Q12 lows
Further rate hikes planned in March-April
FY13F earnings are likely to benefit from lower cost base and better industry discipline
Maintain BUY with S$1.45 TP (1.2x FY13 P/BV)



MARKET PULSE: Nam Cheong, Breadtalk, STX OSV, CSE Global, Dyna-Mac, ECS, Petra Foods (27 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Nam Cheong
Company Name: NAM CHEONG LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.30

Stock Name: BreadTalk
Company Name: BREADTALK GROUP LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.77

Stock Name: STXOSV
Company Name: STX OSV HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.52

Stock Name: CSE Global
Company Name: CSE GLOBAL LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.99

Stock Name: Dyna-Mac
Company Name: DYNA-MAC HOLDINGS LTD.
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.57

Stock Name: ECS
Company Name: ECS HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.56

Stock Name: Petra
Company Name: PETRA FOODS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.57




MARKET PULSE: Nam Cheong, Breadtalk, STX OSV, CSE Global, Dyna-Mac, ECS, Petra Foods
27 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Nam Cheong Limited: A strong quarter to finish FY12
Nam Cheong Limited reported a strong set of 4Q12 results with revenue and net profit increasing by 172% and 87% to MYR 379m and MYR 49m respectively. On a full-year basis, revenue climbed 45% to MYR 877m, while net profit increased 47% to MYR 137m. Operating margin declined slightly to 16.4% compared to 17.3% a year ago, partly due to lower margins from its vessel chartering division. Several vessels were demobilized upon the charter fulfillment and later re-deployed for ensuing contracts. The shipbuilding business achieved significant growth with revenue improving to MYR 839m (+49%) and gross profit increasing to MYR 164m (+56%). The group recommended a final dividend of 0.5 S cts for FY12 (FY11: 0.2 S cts), representing a payout of 19.2%. Maintain BUYwith unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.30. (Chia Jiunyang)

MORE REPORTS

BreadTalk Group: Margin pressures as expected
BreadTalk Group registered a 19.1% YoY and 5.7% increase in 4Q12 revenue and operating profit to S$119.7m and S$6.5m respectively on the back of higher same-store sales across all business segments. Although these results exceeded our forecast, the group's operating and net profit margins declined as expected following greater cost pressures. In line with its expansion phase, BreadTalk declared a lower final dividend to bring the total dividends declared in FY12 to 1.3 S cents (FY11: 1.5 S cents). Going forward, we adjusted our FY13/14 forecasts upwards to account for full year contributions from new stores but remained lukewarm on possible margin improvements as the group's continued expansion push makes the scenario unlikely. Therefore, we lower our rolling 12-month EPS peg to 15.5x (from 19x) but keep our fair value estimate at S$0.77. Maintain HOLD. (Lim Siyi)

STX OSV: FY12 net profit down 45%
STX OSV reported a weak set of results with FY12 net profit coming in at NOK902m, 13% below our expectations and 15% below consensus. 4Q revenue and net profit were NOK2.5b (-18.8%) and NOK124m (-80.6%), respectively. Lower-than-expected order intake resulted in temporarily lower utilizations in some yards in Norway. Its Niteroi shipyard in Brazil also impacted the group's performance negatively. Meanwhile, the vessel market appears to be improving with STX OSV clinching three OSCV contracts worth NOK2-2.8b since the beginning of 2013. Assuming a stronger order intake in 2013 (compared to 2012's NOK9.5b) and barring a serious deterioration in its Brazil operations, the group should see improved utilization and sustained level of performance across 2013-14. Maintain BUY with unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.52. (Chia Jiunyang)

CSE Global: Net profit doubled to S$56m
CSE Global reported results which were in line with expectations as FY12 net profit doubled to S$56m versus our estimate of S$57m. The improvement was partly due disposal gains from its investment in eBworx Berhad. The group has recommended a final dividend of 2.75 Scts for FY12 (FY11: 2.0 Scts). We currently have a BUY rating with a fair value estimate of S$0.99, and will provide further updates after its briefing later. (Chia Jiunyang)

Dyna-Mac Holdings: FY12 net profit up 56.5%
Dyna-Mac Holdings' FY12 net profit came in at S$28.4m (+56.5%) and was in line with our estimate of S$28.0m. In separate SGX announcements, the group disclosed that its COO John Varghese will be re-designated as Chief Corporate and Technical Officer "in line with his intention to take on a less demanding role due to his age and health". John will be succeeded by Mr. Lim Tjew Yok, the Chief Technical Officer and an Executive Director of the company. We will be attending its briefing later and will provide further updates accordingly. In the meantime, do note that we have a BUY rating with S$0.57 fair value estimate. (Chia Jiunyang)

ECS Holdings: 4Q12 core PATMI misses expectations
ECS Holdings (ECS) reported a 21.4% YoY dip in its 4Q12 PATMI to S$7.1m despite a 10.5% increase in revenue to S$1,021.1m. Excluding forex and other exceptional items, we estimate that core earnings would have decreased 16.4% YoY to S$6.6m. This is below our expectations due largely to a 1.1ppt slide in gross margin to 3.4%. For FY12, revenue inched 1.0% higher to S$3,643.7m, forming 102.0% of our FY12 forecast. Estimated core PATMI declined 18.4% (reported PATMI fell 24.4%) to S$29.4m, which missed our estimate by 5.8%. On a positive note, a first and final dividend of S$0.022 per share was declared, similar to FY11, but above our S$0.017 per share forecast. This translates into a yield of 4.2%. Looking ahead, ECS aims to broaden its range of distribution products and services to accommodate the shift in consumer preference from PCs to mobile devices, while it is also looking to develop its own cloud-based solutions. We will provide more details after the analyst briefing. We place our Buy rating and S$0.56 fair value estimate under reviewgiven this set of weaker-than-expected results and ECS's 14.1% YTD share price appreciation. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

Petra Foods: Branded Division continues strong growth
Petra Foods' 4Q12 results registered a net loss of US$16.7m that came in below our expectations following continued weaknesses in its Cocoa Ingredients business. Double-digit net profit growth (+10.4% YoY to US$14.7m) in the Branded Consumer division was offset by a sizeable loss of US$31.4m from the Cocoa Ingredients division during the same period. This brought FY12 net profit to US$25.8m - a decline of 57.3% YoY from US$60.5m. However, excluding the soon-to-be-sold Cocoa Ingredients division, Petra would have registered a 38.8% increase in its FY12 bottom-line to US$54.5m on a 13.8% YoY improvement in revenue to US$477.7m. Pending a briefing with management later in the morning, we place our fair value estimate of S$3.57 under review but maintain our HOLD rating on the counter. (Lim Siyi)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.

NEWS HEADLINES

- US stocks climbed Tuesday with positive housing data and comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke that the benefits of quantitative easing are clear. The Dow rose 0.8% to 13,900.13.

- Keppel Corporation's O&M arm has won two contracts worth S$200m from SBM Offshore and MODEC and Toyo Offshore Production Systems (MTOPS).

- Far East Orchard, formerly known as Orchard Parade Holdings, posted a 53% increase in FY12 net profit to S$190.8m, chiefly due to other gains (net) of S$121.5m.

- Hotel Properties' FY12 PATMI jumped 84% to S$129.7m. Revenue rose 10% to S$542.8m.

- JB Foods' 4Q12 PATMI fell 55% YoY to RM7.2m despite revenue climbing 13% to RM194.8m.





Tuesday, February 26, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Singapore Budget, Raffles Medical, BreadTalk, KS Energy (26 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: RafflesMG
Company Name: RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.01

Stock Name: BreadTalk
Company Name: BREADTALK GROUP LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.77

Stock Name: KS Energy
Company Name: KS ENERGY LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.78




MARKET PULSE: Singapore Budget, Raffles Medical, BreadTalk, KS Energy
26 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Singapore Budget: Budget for SMEs and lower-income
Singapore's economic growth is likely to be between 1-3% this year. For businesses, the Budget mainly focused on reducing foreign workers and helping to defray some operating costs for the SMEs. For the individual, more progressive tax systems were announced, and are shifting higher tax rates to the higher income group. Overall, there are some goodies for the masses and selective targeted measures to help certain businesses. We do not expect the reduction in work permit holders ratio to severely affect the local yards, but expect the Healthcare sector to benefit from the government's commitment to make healthcare more affordable for Singaporeans. The corporate and personal income tax rebates will be welcomed by both businesses and residents to defray costs. Overall, we see the Singapore Budget 2013 as a budget for the SMEs and to also help lower the living expenses of the residents. (Carmen Lee & Research Team)

MORE REPORTS

Raffles Medical Group: Maintain HOLD on rich valuations
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) reported its FY12 results which were within our expectations. Revenue grew 14.2% to S$311.6m, and just 0.1% shy of our forecast. Reported PATMI rose 12.8% to S$56.8m. However, if we exclude the fair value gain in investment properties amounting to S$3.9m, we estimate that core PATMI rose 9.7% to S$52.9m, which is 0.7% higher than our earnings projection. A final dividend of 3.5 S cents/share was declared, bringing full-year DPS to 4.5 S cents (FY12 yield of 1.4%). Looking ahead, we believe that RMG has set its sights on expanding its hospital operations beyond its core market Singapore. We retain our FY13 estimates and introduce our FY14 forecasts. Ascribing a higher PE valuation peg of 27x (previously 24x), we raise our fair value estimate on RMG from S$2.68 to S$3.01. But we maintain HOLD given RMG's rich valuations. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

BreadTalk Group: External factors boost stock
BreadTalk Group (BTG) is due to release its 4QFY12 results this week, and we are anticipating another challenging set of results in terms of cost management. While there will be YoY improvements in terms of its top-line, a continued uptick in raw material costs and operating expenses should see operating profit and PATMI decline by 6% and 9% YoY respectively. Despite the lack of a fundamental catalyst, the stock has continued its appreciation with an 11.8% gain on a YTD basis. From our review of the similar counters across the region, we deem this increase to be down to a re-rating of the sector as investors clamour to gain exposure to EM-Asia consumer demand. Although we raise our rolling 12-month EPS multiple to 19x (11.1x previously) to reflect higher regional valuation, which increases our fair value estimate to S$0.77 (from S$0.49) and upgrades our rating to HOLD, we continue to urge caution as we expect margin pressure to continue in the coming quarters. (Lim Siyi)

KS Energy: Still no news on convertible bonds
KS Energy (KSE) reported a 41.7% increase in revenue to S$698.1m and a net profit of S$1.3m in FY12, vs. our forecast of a full year net loss of S$1.0m. This compares to a net loss of S$78.8m in FY11. There is still no news on the group's convertible bonds, which may be redeemed by investors in Mar this year. Management only mentioned that it is still working on various options to meet this funding requirement. The group's cash level stood at S$60.7m, with a net gearing of 0.75x as at 31 Dec 2012. Looking ahead, management is cautiously optimistic about prospects in FY13. There will also be increased focus on Indonesia for the drilling segment. Maintain HOLD with S$0.78 fair value estimate. (Low Pei Han)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.

NEWS HEADLINES

- US stocks dropped sharply on Monday with concerns over domestic and overseas political issues. The Dow closed down 1.6% to 13,784.17.

- Nobel Design Holdings registered FY12 PATMI of S$32.0m versus S$7.3m a year prior, chiefly due to a 510% increase in other income to S$39.7m.

- Sakae Holdings' FY12 gross profit rose 9% YoY to S$68.7m, but a S$10.5m allowance for impairment in investments in associates caused a S$6.8m loss after tax.

- Zagro Asia posted FY12 net profit of S$8.4, down 14% YoY. Revenue had declined 9% to S$128m.

- VGO Corporation expects to report a loss for FY12 ended 31 Dec.





Monday, February 25, 2013

MARKET PULSE: NOL, Wilmar, Yangzijiang, Bumi Armada, Raffles Med (25 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: NOL
Company Name: NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.38

Stock Name: Wilmar
Company Name: WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.50

Stock Name: Yangzijiang
Company Name: YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.95

Stock Name: RafflesMG
Company Name: RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.68




MARKET PULSE: NOL, Wilmar, Yangzijiang, Bumi Armada, Raffles Med
25 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Neptune Orient Lines: Is the worse over?

Summary: We were disappointed by Neptune Orient Lines's (NOL) 4Q12 performance. Although there were YoY improvements, NOL still registered a net loss of US$98.1m. On a full-year basis, NOL saw revenue inch higher by 3.3% YoY to US$9,511.6m with net losses falling to US$419.4m from US$478.2m. This set of results force us to re-evaluate the timing of NOL's turnaround, and we expect 1Q13 to remain loss-making. Nonetheless, the stabilisation in overall freight rates remain encouraging and we maintain our view that NOL will return to full profitability by the onset of the peak season. Coupled with NOL's manoeuvrability in terms of capacity management, we maintain BUY on NOL with an unchanged fair value of S$1.38. (Lim Siyi)

MORE REPORTS

Wilmar: Downgrade to HOLD; positives priced in

Summary: Wilmar International Limited (WIL) has posted a much stronger-than-expected set of FY12 results. Although reported net profit was down 21.6% at US$1255.5m, core earnings at US$1167.0m (down 23.1%) were still 14% ahead of our forecast. WIL has declared a final dividend of S$0.030/share (versus S$0.031 last year), bringing its total dividend to S$0.05 for FY12, or 18% lower than last year. Going forward, management remains "cautiously optimistic" about its long-term prospects. On growth drivers over the next two years, management believes that its fledging flour and rice business in China will continue to show strong double-digit growth; also looking to expand plantation business in Africa and Myanmar. From the 4Q operating numbers, it does appear that the operations are stabilizing. As such, we bump up our valuation from 13.5x to 15x FY13F EPS, which in turn raises our fair value from S$3.52 to S$3.90. But we suspect most of the positives may already be priced in, given that the stock has rallied by as much as 26% since we upgraded our call on 9 Nov. But in view of the limited upside, we downgrade our call to HOLD; would be buyers closer to S$3.50. (Carey Wong)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Results largely in line; four more contracts ceased

Summary: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 32% YoY fall in revenue to RMB3.6b and a 22% drop in net profit to RMB807.7m in 4Q12, bringing full year revenue and net profit to RMB14.8b and RMB3.6b, respectively. Results were largely in line with our expectations, with both revenue and net profit 4% shy of our full year estimates. Four shipbuilding contracts were ceased in 4Q12, affecting the original delivery schedule. The commercial shipbuilding industry is still in its down cycle and the operating environment continues to be difficult and challenging. We still expect 2H13 to 1H14 to be the most difficult period for the group, based on its order book (US$3.4b as at 22 Feb 2013) and delivery schedules. Maintain HOLD with fair value estimate of S$0.95. (Low Pei Han)

Bumi Armada: Decent FY12 results

Summary: Bumi Armada Berhad's revenue and net profit increased by 7.5% and 7.3% to MYR 1.7b and MYR386m respectively for FY12 , driven by stronger contribution from its FPSO, OSV and T&I (Transport and Installation) divisions. The results were within ours and the street's expectations. FY12 PATMI margin was flat at 23.3%. The group also declared a final cash dividend of 3 MYR cents for 2012 (2011: 2.5 MYR cents). Looking ahead, management believes that the long-term outlook for the offshore oil & gas service sector remains positive and anticipates robust capital expenditure as the search for deepwater oil continues. However, we feel that current valuations - at 21x PER and 2.6x PBR - provide limited upside potential. Maintain HOLD with unchanged fair value estimate of MYR3.48. (Chia Jiunyang)

Raffles Medical Group: 4Q12 results within expectations

Summary: Raffles Medical Group (RMG) reported its 4Q12 results this morning which were within our expectations. Revenue rose 14.9% YoY and 5.5% QoQ to S$83.0m. PATMI jumped 22.7% YoY and 61.0% QoQ to S$20.2m. For FY12, revenue of S$311.6m represented a 14.2% increase, and just 0.1% shy of our forecast. Reported PATMI rose 12.8% to S$56.8m. However, if we exclude the fair value gain in investment properties amounting to S$3.9m, we estimate that core PATMI rose 9.7% to S$52.9m, forming 99.3% of our earnings projection. The improved performance was attributed to growth from its Hospital Services and Healthcare Services divisions, which both saw a double-digit jump in revenue (16.1% and 11.4% respectively). The former was driven by higher patient loads, a wider range of medical specialties on offer and the recruitment of more specialist consultants. A final dividend of 3.5 S cents/share was declared, bringing full-year DPS to 4.5 S cents and translates into FY12 yield of 1.4%. This is slightly higher than our 4 S cents/share forecast. We will provide more updates after the analyst briefing. Given the YTD appreciation in RMG's share price, we place our Hold rating and S$2.68 fair value estimate under review. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.

NEWS HEADLINES

- US stocks rose on Friday after better-than-expected results from H-P and a positive report on German business confidence. The Dow climbed 0.9% to 14,000.57 (up 0.1% for the week).

- Aztech Group announced FY12 PATMI of S$230k, versus a loss attributable to shareholders of S$25.0m a year ago (FY11 impairment loss on vessels of S$19.4m).

- VibroPower reported FY12 PATMI of S$2.2m, up 855% on the back of a 24% increase in revenue to S$39.1m.

- HL Global Enterprises' net loss for FY12 attributable to owners of the company was S$2.6m, versus a loss of S$5.9m the prior year. It has recorded pre-tax losses for the three most recent consecutive financial years.

- Baker Technology posted 4Q12 net profit of S$2.75m, down 3%. Revenue had declined 50% to S$16.4m.

- BH Global Marine has announced that it expects to report a loss for 4Q12 due to a write-off of deposit for purchase of land in Batam, a write-off of inventory, and FX.

Friday, February 22, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Sheng Siong, Genting, CapLand, COSCO, Hyflux, SMM, KS Energy, Midas, Raffles Medical, Wilmar, YZJ and Singapore GDP (22 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Sheng Siong
Company Name: SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.69

Stock Name: Genting SP
Company Name: GENTING SINGAPORE PLC
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.52

Stock Name: Capitaland
Company Name: CAPITALAND LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.29

Stock Name: CoscoCorp
Company Name: COSCO CORPORATION (S) LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.90

Stock Name: Hyflux
Company Name: HYFLUX LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.44

Stock Name: SembMar
Company Name: SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.84

Stock Name: KS Energy
Company Name: KS ENERGY LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.83

Stock Name: MIDAS
Company Name: MIDAS HLDGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.60

Stock Name: RafflesMG
Company Name: RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.68

Stock Name: Wilmar
Company Name: WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.52

Stock Name: Yangzijiang
Company Name: YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.95




MARKET PULSE: Sheng Siong, Genting, CapLand, COSCO, Hyflux, SMM, KS Energy, Midas, Raffles Medical, Wilmar, YZJ and Singapore GDP
22 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Sheng Siong Group: Time to go defensive
Sheng Siong Group's (SSG) FY12 results met our expectations with revenue increasing 10.2% YoY To S$637.3m while prudent cost management ensured an improvement in core operating profit margin by 0.3 ppt to 6.2%. In addition, core PATMI rose 14.8% YoY to S$31.3m. Management also declared a final dividend of 1.75 S cents (versus 1.77 S cents in FY11), and committed to extend its 90% PAT payout policy for another two years. We are positive on the outlook for SSG in FY13 on the back of i) full-year contributions from the eight new stores, ii) margin stability, and iii) defensive consumer spending in the face of continued economic uncertainty. Therefore, we reverse our previously conservative assumptions and raise our fair value to S$0.69 from S$0.58 previously. Upgrade to BUY. (Lim Siyi)


MORE REPORTS

Genting Singapore: FY12 in line; HOLD with new S$1.52 FV

Genting Singapore (GS) reported FY12 revenue down 9% at S$2948.1m, or 4.6% shy of our forecast, mainly due to lower gaming business volume. Net profit came in around S$677.7m, down 34%, and was 4.4% shy of our estimate. GS declared a final dividend of S$0.01/share, unchanged from last year. Going forward, GS is also slightly more upbeat about RWS' performance this year, citing the more positive global economic outlook. Besides the VIP segment, GS intends to focus on the mass market by targeting visitors from Malaysia and Indonesia. It adds that it is well placed to capitalize on investment opportunities in related leisure/gaming business, after raising some S$3b from perpetual securities last year; but did not give specific targets. While our DCF-based fair value improves from S$1.33 to S$1.52, we maintain our HOLD rating on valuation grounds. But an accretive acquisition could provide the catalyst of a re-rating. (Carey Wong)

CapitaLand Limited: Focused on improving ROE
CapitaLand (CAPL) announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$262.7m, falling 45% YoY mostly due to the impact of lower fair value gains. FY12 PATMI now cumulates to S$930.3m (down 12% YoY), which forms 103% of our FY12 forecast and is judged to be mostly in line with our expectations. Over 3,000 units were sold in China over FY12 - a strong pickup from ~1,500 units in FY11. In Singapore, 681 residential units were sold in FY12, dipping 19% from 844 units the previous year. We believe the strategic realignment initiative is proceeding well, with management clearly articulating their focus on improving ROE for shareholders ahead. To that end, we observe that CAPL has, over FY12, increased its leverage ratio to 45% from 31% and committed S$4.1b of new investments, mainly in key markets Singapore and China. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$4.29 (20% discount to RNAV). (Eli Lee)

COSCO Corp (S'pore): Headwinds remain
COSCO Corp (S'pore) reported a decent set of results that were within ours and the street's expectations. FY12 revenue decreased 10% to S$3.7b, while PATMI fell 24% to S$106m. The declines largely reflected the general weakness in the shipbuilding environment and COSCO's initial expansion into the offshore segment. While the group's margins appear to have stabilized, its cash generation remains weak. Against the backdrop of an uncertain operating environment, the rising net gearing ratio is also another concern. Rolling forward to FY13F, we raise our fair value estimate to S$0.90 (on 1.5x P/B). Maintain HOLD. (Chia Jiunyang)

Hyflux: Order book hits S$2.9b
Hyflux Ltd posted FY12 revenue of S$682.4m, up 42%, and was also some 16% above our forecast, but reported net profit of S$61.0m (+15%) was around 5% below our estimate; this is likely due to higher-than-expected recognition from its TuaSpring Desalination Project (TDP), which is now substantially completed. Hyflux has declared a final dividend of S$0.025/share, versus S$0.021 last year; this brings the total dividend for the year to S$0.032, versus S$0.0277 in FY11. Going forward, Hyflux is slightly more upbeat about its prospects, citing the still-strong global demand for water infrastructure projects. Order book already stands at S$2.9b (as of end-2012); and management believes that growth in the O&M portion will provide a steady and recurring revenue stream; it further expects the O&M revenue to capture the full impact of its current portfolio by FY16. For now, we will maintain our HOLD rating and S$1.44 fair value on the stock; but we do see room for re-rating should it win another substantial contract. (Carey Wong)

Sembcorp Marine: Receiving enquiries for drillships
Sembcorp Marine (SMM) reported a 38.1% YoY rise in revenue to S$1.38b and a 27.0% fall in net profit to S$167.1m in 4Q12, bringing full year revenue and net profit to S$4.43b and S$538.5m, respectively. Excluding one-off items such as foreign exchange losses and disposal gains, core net profit of S$562m was in line with our expectations. Operating margin fell from 14.1% in 3Q12 to 10.8% in 4Q12, mainly due to lower margins from new design rigs, and a higher proportion of procurement in the business mix. The group is seeing healthy enquiries for semi-submersible rigs and even drillships. SMM has secured new orders worth S$900m YTD, accounting for 20.3% of our full year estimate. Net order book is also strong at S$13.6b with deliveries till 2019. Maintain BUY with S$5.84 fair value estimate, based on 16x blended FY13/14F earnings. (Low Pei Han)

KS Energy: FY12 sees net profit of S$1.3m
KS Energy (KSE) reported a 41.7% increase in revenue to S$698.1m and a net profit of S$1.3m in FY12, vs. our forecast of a full year net loss of S$1.0m. This compares to a net loss of S$78.8m in FY11. Revenue from the distribution business grew 32% to S$460.4m, accounting for 66% of total revenue. Turnover from the drilling segment rose 76%, mainly due to the sale of the KS Java Star rig to a subsidiary of KSE's jointly controlled subsidiary, PT KS Drilling Indonesia. Overall gross profit margin fell from 22.2% to 18.6%. KSE expects more assets to be deployed over the next twelve months for its drilling business, particularly in Indonesia. Pending more details from management, we maintain our HOLDrating but place our fair value estimate of S$0.83 under review. (Low Pei Han)

Midas Holdings: Expects significant fall in FY12 revenue and PATMI
Midas Holdings (Midas) has issued a negative profit guidance prior to its upcoming 4Q12 results release, saying that it expects to record a significant drop in its revenue and PATMI for FY12. This is unsurprising as its 9M12 results had already seen a 24.9% and 92.9% plunge in revenue and PATMI, respectively. We are forecasting FY12 revenue of CNY845.6m and PATMI of CNY6.8m, which translates into a decline of 21.8% and 96.4%, respectively. We had also constantly highlighted that Midas' near term financial performance would remain lacklustre in the near term. Reasons cited for the guidance are higher operating and financial expenses and a share of loss from its associated company, Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT). Midas will report its 4Q12 results on 27 Feb after trading hours, while an analyst conference call has been scheduled the day after. We will provide more updates then. For now, we have a BUY rating and S$0.60 fair value estimate on the stock. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

Raffles Medical Group: Letter of Intent for proposed hospital development in China
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) announced this morning that it had entered into a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) dated 31 Jan 2013 with China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone, to collaborate on the proposed development of an integrated international hospital in Shenzhen, China. The hospital would have more than 200 beds and is targeted to provide high-end medical services to foreigners and locals in the Pearl River Delta region. Although this LOI is subject to terms being finalised and relevant regulatory approvals, we believe that it highlights the intention of management to expand its hospital operations beyond Singapore. Recall that RMG had also submitted a hospital development tender in Hong Kong last Jul (tender results expected to be out in early 2013). Should these projects materialise, we opine that it would raise RMG's brand profile in the region and diversify its income streams. As RMG is slated to release its 4Q12 results next Monday, 25 Feb before market open, coupled with its recent share price appreciation, we place our Hold rating and S$2.68 fair value estimate under review. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

Wilmar: Much stronger-than-expected FY12 earnings
Wilmar International Limited (WIL) has posted a much stronger-than-expected set of FY12 results. Although reported net profit was down 21.6% at US$1255.5m, core earnings at US$1167.0m (down 23.1%) were still 14% ahead of our forecast. We note that the outperformance came mainly from a 32% jump in PBT from its Palm & Laurics division; this driven by the revised Indonesian export tax structure. WIL has declared a final dividend of S$0.03/share (versus S$0.031 last year), bringing its total dividend to S$0.05 for FY12, or 18% lower than last year. Going forward, management remains "cautiously optimistic" about its long-term prospects. We will have more after the mid-day analyst briefing. For now, we place our Buy rating and S$3.52 fair value under review. Note that the stock has jumped 18% since we upgraded it on 9 Nov 2011. (Carey Wong)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Results largely in line; four more contracts ceased
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 32% YoY fall in revenue to RMB3.6b and a 22% drop in net profit to RMB807.7m in 4Q12, bringing full year revenue and net profit to RMB14.8b and RMB3.6b, respectively. Results were largely in line with our expectations, with both revenue and net profit 4% shy of our full year estimates. Four shipbuilding contracts were ceased in 4Q12, affecting the original delivery schedule. Hence the group only delivered 12 vessels in the quarter. The commercial shipbuilding industry is still in its down cycle and the operating environment continues to be difficult and challenging. Pending an analysts' briefing later this morning, we maintain our HOLD rating but our fair value estimate of S$0.95 is under review. (Low Pei Han)

Singapore Economy: 2013 growth forecast remains at 1.0-3.0%
According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Singapore's economy grew by 1.5% in 4Q12, better than the street's expectations of a 1.2% growth, as well as the zero growth seen in 3Q12. On a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, the economy expanded by 3.3% QoQ, compared to the 4.6% contraction in 3Q12. Manufacturing grew by 3.1% QoQ vs 3Q12's 16.6% decline, largely due to a rebound in biomedical output and transport engineering. Construction contracted by 3.9% while services grew by 2.5% QoQ. All these factors brought 2012 growth to 1.3%. For 2013, the official growth forecast is maintained at 1.0-3.0%, but key risks include the fiscal cutback in the US and the Eurozone debt crisis. (Low Pei Han)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.


NEWS HEADLINES

- Tiger Airways is contemplating shutting down its loss-making Australian operations if it does not get regulatory approval to sell its controlling stake to Virgin Australia

- Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Limited (MIIF) will amend its management fee structure in order to return value to shareholders, as it prepares to sell its assets and wind down the company.

- Construction firm Chip Eng Seng Corporation's 4Q12 net profit rose 36% YoY to S$39.21m, from S$28.83m a year earlier.

- Oil and gas exploration company Ramba Energy narrowed its full year loss to S$7.6m last year, from S$8.8m of losses in 2011.

- From the beginning of this year, property funds like REITs buying industrial buildings from sellers on JTC-leased sites will have to pay a land premium upfront to JTC for the remaining part of the lease term.

- Domestic wholesale trade slid 3.8% YoY in 4Q12, partly due to lower sales of petroleum and petroleum products, while foreign wholesale increased 2.5% from the year-ago quarter.

- Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam will deliver the 2013 Budget on Feb 25 at 3.30pm in Parliament.





Thursday, February 21, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Venture Corp, Roxy-Pacific, CapitaLand, Ezion, OKP (21 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Venture
Company Name: VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.22

Stock Name: Roxy-Pacific
Company Name: ROXY-PACIFIC HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.61

Stock Name: Capitaland
Company Name: CAPITALAND LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.29

Stock Name: EzionHldg
Company Name: EZION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.05




MARKET PULSE: Venture Corp, Roxy-Pacific, CapitaLand, Ezion, OKP
21 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Venture Corp: 4Q12 results preview
Venture Corporation (VMS) is slated to release its 4Q12 results on 28 Feb after trading hours. We are projecting revenue to remain flat YoY at S$34.9m and PATMI to decline 8.1% YoY to S$633.2m. This is approximately 4.5% and 14.8% below the Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively, due to lower operating margin assumption. However, a key highlight would be expectations for a first and final dividend of 55 S cents/share, which translates into an attractive yield of 6.5%. Looking ahead, conditions for VMS are likely to pick up gradually after the seasonally slow 1Q13, with stronger financial performance expected in 2H13 when contribution from new product launches gain traction. Maintain BUY, with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$9.22. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)

MORE REPORTS

Roxy-Pacific Holdings: 4Q results in line
The group announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$23.3m, up 96% YoY mostly due to S$11.2m of fair-value gains on investment properties. Excluding one-time gains, we estimate core 4Q12 PATMI at S$13.9m which cumulates to full year earnings of S$48.9m - in line with our FY12 estimates. A final cash dividend of 0.92 S-cents is proposed. Though we see the shares to be fairly priced currently, a re-rating could come through if management shows active and accretive capital redeployment ahead, particularly with an anticipated cash capital in excess of S$200m flowing back into the balance sheet over FY13. Maintain HOLD with an increased fair value estimate of S$0.61 (25% discount to RNAV), versus S$0.54 previously. (Eli Lee)

CapitaLand Limited: Earnings dip from lower fair value gains
CapitaLand (CAPL) announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$262.7m - down 45% YoY mostly due to lower fair value gains recognized over the quarter. Full year PATMI cumulates to S$930.3m, forming 103% of our FY12 forecast which we judge to be mostly in line. FY12 topline came in at S$3,301m which increased 9.3% YoY mainly due to higher contributions from development projects in Singapore and Australia, its retail mall businesses and a stronger fee-based income. In Singapore, 681 residential units were sold in FY12, dipping 19% from 844 units the previous year. Over 3,000 units were sold in China over FY12 - a strong pickup from ~1,500 units in FY12. Over FY12, the group committed S$4.1b of new investments, 71% of which is in Singapore and China. We could speak with management regarding these results later today and, in the meantime, maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$4.29 (20% discount to RNAV). (Eli Lee)

Ezion Holdings: Results in line with our expectations
Ezion Holdings (Ezion) reported a 91.8% YoY rise in revenue to US$52.3m and a 95.7% increase in net profit to US$20.5m in 4Q12, bringing full year revenue and net profit to US$158.7m and US$78.8m, respectively. FY12 revenue and net profit were in line with our expectations, accounting for 100% and 105% of our full year estimates, respectively. However, FY12 net profit was 22% higher than the street's US$64.3m forecast. More assets will be deployed in 2013, and higher contributions are also expected from Australia with the commencement of two major LNG projects as well. Same as last year, a 0.1 S cent dividend per share has also been declared. Pending an analysts' briefing later this morning, we maintain our BUY rating but put our fair value estimate of S$2.05 under review. (Low Pei Han)

OKP Holdings: Weak 4Q12 results, as expected
OKP Holdings' 4Q12 results were in line with our expectations, with net profit falling 60.3% YoY to S$3.8m (taking FY12 net profit to S$12.4m, 6% above our forecast and 53.4% lower than in FY11), due mainly to a surge in costs. Revenue rose 18.4% YoY to S$27.5m in 4Q12 (taking FY12 revenue to S$104.5m, slightly below our full-year revenue forecast), but its gross profit margin narrowed to 21.9% in 4Q12 from 64.8% a year earlier. OKP declared a final cash dividend of 1.5 S cent/share, down from 2 S cents for FY11. Its construction orderbook remains strong at S$376.6m, with contracts lasting up to FY15, but its narrowing margins and feeble 4Q12 showing suggest difficulties in converting future revenue growth into profits. We place our previous Hold rating and fair value estimate of S$0.46 on the company UNDER REVIEW pending a change in analyst. (Research Team)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.


NEWS HEADLINES

- Broadway Industrial Group swung to a net profit of S$3.25m for the 4Q12 from a net loss of S$10.16 million a year earlier.

- Yeo Hiap Seng reported a 46% YoY decrease in net profit to S$5.24m for 4Q12.

- Intraco Limited saw its FY12 losses widen to S$8.9m from S$7.2m a year earlier, dragged down by doubtful receivables, claims and an inventory write-down.

- Koh Brothers has secured a S$99.8m contract from PUB to carry out improvement works to the Bukit Timah First Diversion Canal for a period of three years.

- A fire incident has broken out at one of Hi-P International's buildings in its manufacturing plant in Shanghai. The incident is not expected to have any material impact on the company's operations and financial performance.

- Office rents in Singapore's central business district were 51.7% lower than Hong Kong's last year, according to Cushman & Wakefield's Office Space Across the World 2013 report released Wednesday.





Wednesday, February 20, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Aviation Sector, CapitaLand, Roxy-Pacific (20 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: TigerAir
Company Name: TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.86




MARKET PULSE: Aviation Sector, CapitaLand, Roxy-Pacific
20 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Aviation Sector: Budget trumps premium

Summary: The Jan 2013 operating statistics for Tiger Airways (TGR) and Singapore Airlines (SIA) mirrored their recent corporate result performance. TGR saw passenger load factors (PLF) improve on effective capacity management for its Singapore and Australian segments while SIA continued to see PLF falter with capacity growth outstripping passenger demand. With the environment remaining challenging - particularly in the premium carrier space - we favour TGR over SIA in the coming quarters. TGR [BUY; S$0.86] shows more promise with its turnaround story intact, and we are expecting another positive showing for 4Q13. On the other hand, SIA [HOLD; S$10.85] will likely see passenger yields remaining depressed especially with other carriers introducing fare promotions of their own. Maintain NEUTRAL on the overall aviation sector. (Lim Siyi)

MORE REPORTS

CapitaLand Limited: Overall positive on Danga Bay project

Summary: CAPL is taking a 51% stake, alongside Iskandar Waterfront Sdn Bhd (40%) and Temasek (9%), in a JV to acquire and develop a 71.4 acre freehold site in A2 Island, Danga Bay in Johor Bahru, Malaysia. This is the group's first major Malaysian township development, which is envisioned to be a premier waterfront residential community. Total land cost for the project is RM811m (S$324m), payable over 4.5 years, and its gross development value is estimated at RM8.1b (S$3.2b). We estimate CAPL's IRR for this project to be in the low to mid teens, and for this acquisition to accrete S$174m or S$0.04 per share to the group's RNAV. Maintain BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$4.29 (20% discount to RNAV), versus S$4.04 previously, as we incorporate this acquisition into our model and update for valuations of listed holdings. (Eli Lee)

Roxy-Pacific Holdings: 4Q results in line

Summary: The group announced 4Q12 PATMI of S$23.3m, up 96% YoY mostly due to S$11.2m of fair-value gains on investment properties. Excluding one-time gains, we estimate core 4Q12 PATMI of S$13.9m which cumulates to full year earnings of S$48.9m - in line with our FY12 estimates. Topline for the quarter came in at S$56.2m, also up 33% YoY as revenue recognition from property developments increased. The group reports progress billings from already sold units at a healthy S$861.7m, equivalent to 4.5 times FY12 revenue, which we expect to underpin earnings over FY13-15 ahead. A final cash dividend of 0.92 S-cent is proposed. We would speak with the company later today regarding these results and, in the meantime, maintain HOLD and will review our fair value estimate of S$0.54. (Eli Lee)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.


NEWS HEADLINES

- Koh Brothers Group's 4Q12 net profit jumped five-fold to S$6.5m, mainly from progressive recognition of its residential project, Parc Olympia at Upper Changi.

- AP Oil International's full year earnings surged 38% to S$5.76m as both its manufacturing and trading volumes increased.

- Food Junction posted a loss of S$6.9m for 2012, attributable mainly to a S$5m impairment on intangible assets arising from a previous acquisition.

- The prime ministers of Singapore and Malaysia announced that both countries will work towards setting up a new high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore by 2020.

- Temasek and Khazanah unveiled two flagship projects in Iskandar Malaysia worth a combined MYR3b yesterday.

- Signs of a rift between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and key members of his Cabinet over the choice of the new BoJ governor pushed the yen up and Tokyo stock prices down yesterday. Markets were uncertain whether his aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus policies would unravel.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Telecom Sector, StarHill Global, CapitaLand, Lian Beng (19 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Starhill Gbl
Company Name: STARHILL GLOBAL REIT
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.98

Stock Name: Capitaland
Company Name: CAPITALAND LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.04




MARKET PULSE: Telecom Sector, StarHill Global, CapitaLand, Lian Beng
19 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Telecom Sector: Expecting higher capex in 2013

Summary: Out of the three telcos, M1's 4Q12 results were slightly below our forecast while the other two were mostly in line. But M1 also surprised with a special dividend of S$0.017/share on top of its final dividend of S$0.063. StarHub declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05 as guided. Both M1 and StarHub expect to see earnings growth in 2013; but both are also guiding for higher capex targets, likely for the ongoing 4G roll-out and also more data capacity to meet growing usage trend. SingTel has kept its previous guidance, but note that its year-end is in Mar. For now, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT on the sector. But as the telcos have already done quite well YTD, further capital appreciation may be limited, although dividend yields are still relatively attractive. M1 remains our top pick. (Carey Wong)

MORE REPORTS

Starhill Global REIT: Expect extra DPU in 1Q13

Summary: Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) announced that the rent review process relating to Toshin master lease at Ngee Ann City has been completed on last Thursday and that it has been awarded a 10.0% increase in base rent. Assuming the accumulated rental arrears owing as a result of the rental increase from 8 Jun 2011 to 31 Dec 2012 were paid in FY12 (after deducting expenses), management estimates an increase of 0.19 S cent or 4.3% in its FY12 DPU. SGREIT intends to distribute substantially the net arrears received from Toshin in 1Q13, on top of the regular distributable income generated for the quarter. We also understand that the new rate will serve as the base rent for the next lease renewal exercise in Jun. Management expects the renewal rent to be determined before the commencement of the lease period. We believe further upside in rent is still possible. However, we choose to incorporate only the new rate and distribution for now. This raises our fair value from S$0.95 to S$0.98. Maintain BUY. (Kevin Tan)

CapitaLand Limited: Involvement in Danga Bay development in Johor

Summary: It was reported in news yesterday that Capitaland Malaysia Pte Ltd, along with Temasek Holdings and Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Bhd, would buy and develop a 28.33ha man-made island at Danga Bay into a mixed integrated development, comprising high-rise residences, landed homes and retail centers. The total development cost for the project is reportedly RM4-5 billion. We note that the group has not made an announcement via SGX, and the extent of CapitaLand's involvement in the project is still unclear. We would speak further with them regarding this development, and in the meantime, maintain our BUY rating with a fair value estimate of S$4.04. (Eli Lee)

Lian Beng Group: S$117m contract win boosts order book to S$664m

Summary: Lian Beng Group has secured a S$117m contract for the construction of Skies Miltonia, a condominium development of TG Master Pte Ltd, at the junction of Yishun Avenue 1 and Miltonia Close. The project involves the construction of eight 13-storey residential blocks with penthouse and one 3-storey residential block, totalling 420 units, as well as basement car park, swimming pool, communal facilities and shops. Construction is due to start next month and will take about 33 months to complete. The new contract strengthens the group's order book to S$664m as at 18 Feb 2013, with projects lasting through FY2016. We are keeping Lian Beng UNDER REVIEW pending a change in analyst. (Research Team)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.


NEWS HEADLINES

- Thai tycoon Chaoren ended his offer for F&N with 90.3% stake, which is enough to force a delisting of the conglomerate.

- Property developer Hiap Hoe's 4Q net profit was up 6% YoY to S$13.8m as higher gross profit margin more than offset a drop in revenue.

- Soup Restaurant's FY12 net profit increased 86% to S$4.2m after recording $3.4m gain in the disposal of its stake in Dian Xiao Er chain.

- Singapore's non-oil domestic exports inched up 0.5% YoY in Jan, missing forecast and posting weaker growth compared to other regional markets.

- The yen resumed its sharp downward slide yesterday after the weekend G20 meeting backed away from publicly criticising Japan for the aggressive monetary easing actions.

Genting Singapore off 1.3%; Tempting to take profit: Credit Suisse

Stock Name: Genting SP
Company Name: GENTING SINGAPORE PLC
Research House: Credit SuissePrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.80



Genting Singapore (G13.SG) is down 1.3% at $1.54, its fourth straight session of declines as it heads into Thursday’s earnings release.

Declines in Macau stocks may be weighing after analysts noted the enclave’s casinos saw weak VIP performance during the key Lunar New Year holiday gaming period.

Citigroup says Macau’s VIP gamers avoided the crowds amid the enclave’s solid visitor arrivals, possibly indicating a more favorable VIP-mass mix; Deutsche Bank notes Macau play sentiment may be hurt if Beijing reiterates its anti-corruption stance.

Credit Suisse notes GENS’ shares have rebounded 30% over the past three months; “While we remain bullish on the prospects of an earnings recovery in 2013, the recent run-up makes it tempting to take some money off the table.”

It notes the stock has been driven by competitor Marina Bay Sands reporting strong 4Q12 VIP volumes, suggesting the market may have been overly pessimistic on Singapore VIP prospects; “There is also talk of heightened retail interest in the stock,” CS adds.

But it expects 4Q12 EBITDA margins may remain weak as the marine park only opened in December and unless management was aggressive on extending VIP credit, it may not see a similar spike to MBS’. It rates GENS Outperform with $1.80 target.

OSPL - Good Morning S'pore - Central Dealing Desk

Stock Name: OCBC Bk
Company Name: OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.60

Stock Name: ST Engg
Company Name: SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD
Research House: UOB KayHianPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.12




Market Compass


19 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!


Singapore Idea Snippets:

19 February 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!

Central Execution Team - Trading For A Living

This product is made available by your Central Execution Team, for you as TRs of OCBC Securities to help you with your business and therefore it is confidential and only for internal circulation. It is not intended for onward circulation to non-OSPL TRs, clients or any other third party in this or any other version. Neither is this intended to be relied upon as a sole basis for any recommendation. TRs must also consider their clients' investment objectives, financial position and needs when intending to make or making any recommendation. For the front desk, by the front desk. All feedback to make this a better product is welcome.


Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping




Source: Marketwatch

Quote for the day : To be a good investment banker you have to have a good sense of the absurd

- PETER J. SOLOMON



Singapore: The Day Ahead

SINGAPORE DAYBOOK: Charoen ends offer with 90.3% of F&N. He may take F&N private to gain operational flexibility: analyst

THAI tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi ended his bid for Fraser and Neave (F&N) with enough shares to force a delisting of the conglomerate. Mr Charoen's $9.55-per-share pre-dividend offer, made through private vehicle TCC Assets, closed at 5.30pm yesterday with acceptances worth 42.1 per cent of F&N's shares


MARKET SCOOP

Ezion secures charter contract of US$79.9m

Indofoodbuys 15% stake in China Minzhong Food

Lian Beng clinches S$117m condo contract

Soup Restaurant doubles full-year net profit

Tiger Airways flew 42% more passengers in Jan



DBS VICKERS Securities says...

ST ENGINEERING | BUY | TP: S$4.40


FY12 net profit of S$576m (+9% y-o-y) in line; final dividend of 13.8Scts (FY12: 12.5Scts)
Upside to end-FY12 orderbook of S$12.1bn from recent Singapore navy contract
MRO revenues recovering; potential for upside surprise from pick up in US operations
Valuations have not peaked; maintain BUY with higher TP of S$4.40


OSK DMG Securities says...

OCBC | NEUTRAL | TP: S$9.60

OCBC reported 4Q12 net profit of SGD 663m, up 12% y-o-y. However, this is 8% lower versus 3Q12's core SGD 724m - there were 3Q12 gains from sale of stakes in F&N & APB
Whilst we are positive on management guidance of high single-digit 2013 loan growth, further NIM compression could hurt earnings
We raised FY13F net profit by 5% to SGD 2.67b as we raised insurance income expectations and lowered provision assumptions
Consequently, we raised our target price to SGD9.60, which is pegged to 1.35x 2013 book


UOB KAY HIAN says...

ST ENGINEERING | HOLD | TP: S$4.12

Flat 4Q12 but still an admirable 9.2% full-year growth
Strong operating cash flow supportive of dividends
S$6b in orders were secured in 2012 but STE could have already secured S$2b ytd
All segments showed revenue and PBT growth but provisions a cause for concern
ST Marine expanding into ship repair at its US Yard
Guidance for higher revenue and PBT growth for 2013


Monday, February 18, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Residential Sector, Infrastructure Plays, STE, Transport Sector (18 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Capitaland
Company Name: CAPITALAND LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.04

Stock Name: KepLand
Company Name: KEPPEL LAND LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.53

Stock Name: CapMallsAsia
Company Name: CAPITAMALLS ASIA LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.55

Stock Name: Tat Hong
Company Name: TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.75

Stock Name: Tee Intl
Company Name: TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.30

Stock Name: ST Engg
Company Name: SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.12

Stock Name: ComfortDelGro
Company Name: COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.95

Stock Name: SMRT
Company Name: SMRT CORPORATION LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.71




MARKET PULSE: Residential Sector, Infrastructure Plays, STE, Transport Sector
18 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Singapore Residential Property: Healthy Jan sales but expect weakness ahead

Summary: URA reported that a headline total of 2,269 new private homes (including 256 EC units) were sold in Jan 2013, which was up 2% MoM and 9% YoY. Excluding EC and landed-units, 2,003 units were sold in the month - up 47% MoM and 7% YoY with a sustained above-par take-up rate at 111% (versus 144% in Dec 2012). Looking ahead, we expect Feb 2013 sales figure to fall MoM due to the traditionally quiet Chinese New Year season and a limited number of new launches. Immediate data-points ahead are the launches at Trilinq (IOI Group) near the Clementi MRT Station and Urban Vista (Fragrance Group) near the Tanah Merah MRT station. We have a NEUTRAL rating on the residential property sector and prefer diversified developers with strong balance sheets and significant exposure to the Chinese property sector. Our top picks are CapitaLand [BUY, S$4.04], Keppel Land [BUY, S$4.53] and CapitaMalls Asia [BUY, S$2.55]. (Eli Lee)

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Population White Paper favours Infrastructure Plays

Summary: After five days of intense debate, Singapore's Parliament passed the amended White Paper on Population about a week ago. We reviewed the White Paper and emphasize the following: - (i) the government will now build infrastructure ahead of demand, (ii) planning parameters of 5.8m to 6.0 million in 2020 (and 6.5 to 6.9 million in 2030) are to be used, (iii) the housing supply will be ramped up and HDB prices will remain affordable, (iv) rail network will double by 2030 with the addition of five more lines. In our view, the most direct beneficiary is the infrastructure sector (public works providers opposed to construction-developers). We highlight several niche players such as Tat Hong Holdings (BUY; FV: S$1.75), Yongnam Holdings Limited (UNRATED), TEE International (HOLD; FV: S$0.30) and TTJ Holdings (UNRATED). (Chia Jiunyang)

ST Engineering: FY12 in line

Summary: Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE) reported FY12 results that were in line with ours and consensus expectations. For FY12, revenue rose 6% YoY to S$6.4b, profit before tax climbed 10% YoY to S$723mm and profit attributable to shareholders rose 9% to S$576m. All sectors recorded higher PBT for FY12 versus FY11. Aerospace, Electronics, Land Systems and Marine saw PBT increase by 9%, 11%, 6% and 5% YoY respectively. Aerospace's FY12 PBT margin of 15.0% improved over FY11's 14.4%. STE expects to achieve higher revenue and PBT in FY13 versus FY12. We forecast a FY13F EPS of 19.9 S cents, and keeping a P/E peg of 20.7x, we raise our fair value from S$3.90 to S$4.12 and maintain a HOLD on STE. We estimate a FY13F dividend yield of 4.5%. (Sarah Ong)

Singapore Transport: Fare review report delayed till end-May

Summary: We are unperturbed by the Transport Minister's decision to delay the submission of the Fare Review Mechanism Committee's report to end-May because i) our projections already factor in price increases from mid-2QCY13, and ii) broad-based fare increases will still materialise. Although the reason for the delay is to facilitate further study of the impact of fare increases on low-income families and/or dependent groups (e.g. polytechnic students), wording in recent speeches and reiterations by the Transport Minister have been clear that commuters should be prepared to bear some of the cost increases especially after the fact that current fares have been kept affordable over recent years at the expense of public transport operators. Therefore, we leave our forecasts for both public transport operators - ComfortDelGro and SMRT - unchanged and maintain HOLD for both counters at S$1.95 and S$1.71 respectively. (Lim Siyi)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.

NEWS HEADLINES

- Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to announce his candidate for Bank of Japan's new governor for this week - a move with international and financial implications.

- According to the median estimate of economists by Reuters, Singapore's GDP likely grew by 1.2% in 4Q2012, faster than the advance estimate of 1.1%, helped by higher production of oil rigs and pharmaceuticals.

- Singapore retail sales fell 1.5% YoY in Dec last year, dragged down by weaker sales of motor vehicles.

- The new head of Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) says, developers here are "naturally anxious" about the latest cooling measures, but they understand the government's push for a soft landing of property market and support the population roadmap.

- Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust will be launching an IPO for up to US$1.3b, the largest ever for a real estate investment trust in Singapore. According to its prospectus, the trust is offering about 1.73 million units in a range of S$0.88-0.93 each.

Friday, February 15, 2013

MARKET PULSE: Tat Hong, SingTel, Starhill Global, STX OSV (15 Feb 2013)

Stock Name: Tat Hong
Company Name: TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.75

Stock Name: SingTel
Company Name: SINGTEL
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.68

Stock Name: Starhill Gbl
Company Name: STARHILL GLOBAL REIT
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.95

Stock Name: STXOSV
Company Name: STX OSV HOLDINGS LIMITED
Research House: OCBCPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.52




MARKET PULSE: Tat Hong, SingTel, Starhill Global, STX OSV
15 Feb 2013
KEY IDEA

Tat Hong Holdings: Another strong quarter

Summary: Tat Hong Holdings (Tat Hong) reported a fairly strong set of 3Q13 results with net profit attributable to shareholders surging by 37% YoY to S$17.8m. Gross margin increased slightly to 35.9% (3Q12: 34.4%) due to higher contribution from Crane Rental and Tower Rental segments which yielded higher margins compared to Distribution. Looking ahead, the crane divisions are expected to continue their strong momentums with the roll-out of infrastructure projects across the region. However, Distribution and General Equipment Rental may slow due to weaker demand in Australia. Overall, we are still positive on Tat Hong and raise our fair value estimate to S$1.75 (previously S$1.70) as we roll forward our projections to FY13/14F. Maintain BUY. (Chia Jiunyang)

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SingTel: Stable 3QFY13 results

Summary: SingTel saw its 3QFY13 group revenue dipping 4.8% YoY to S$4597m, and while EBITDA rose 0.5% to S$1262m, net profit fell 8.3% to S$827m (mainly due to exceptional loss of S$67m). However, excluding exceptional items, underlying net profit was down 2.3% at S$874m. 9MFY13 revenue fell 2.4% to S$13702m, meeting 73% of our FY13 forecast, while net profit slipped 2.2% to S$2640m; core earnings was down 1.6% at S$2610m, or 69% of full-year estimate. SingTel has kept its guidance for FY13, which we have already captured in our forecast. As such, we would not be making any changes. However, in line of the recent recovery in the price of its listed associates, our SOTP-based fair value improves from S$3.53 to S$3.68. We also maintain our BUY rating on the stock. (Carey Wong)

Starhill Global REIT: 10% rent increase for Toshin master lease

Summary: Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) has secured a 10.0% increase in base rent for Toshin master lease at Ngee Ann City, following the completion of the rent review process yesterday. The new rate was based on the average of three market rental valuations undertaken by independent licensed valuers, in accordance with the Court of Appeal's directions, and will be retrospectively applied for the term commencing 8 Jun 2011. Assuming the accumulated rental arrears owing as a result of the rental increase from 8 Jun 2011 to 31 Dec 2012 were paid in FY12 (after deducting expenses), management estimates an increase of 0.19 S cents (+4.3%) in its FY12 DPU. SGREIT intends to distribute substantially the net arrears received (~S$3.8m) from Toshin in 1Q13. This will be on top of the regular distributable income generated for the quarter. We expect the market to react favourably to this news. Maintain BUY on SGREIT but place our fair value of S$0.95 under review as we incorporate the rental and DPU increase in our forecasts. (Kevin Tan)

STX OSV: Three new OSCV contracts worth US$350-500m

Summary: STX OSV announced that it has secured contracts for three Offshore Subsea Construction Vessels (OSCVs). We estimate the total value to be around NOK 2b to 2.8b (or US$350-500m). The three vessels are for Solstad Offshore, Farstad Shipping and DOF Subsea Group. They will be built in Norway and scheduled for deliveries in 2014 and 2015. As the group is expected to report its 4Q12 results soon, we put off adjusting our estimates and maintain our BUY rating with S$1.52 fair value estimate. (Chia Jiunyang)

For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report.


NEWS HEADLINES

- US stocks finished mostly higher on Thurs after another day of tight trading, but blue chips turned in their second day of losses, as investors mulled mixed economic data on a banner day for mergers and acquisitions.

- China Minzhong Food Corporation posted a 23.6% YoY increase in profit to CNY215.8m in 2QFY13.

- Cordlife Group Limited's 2QFY13 net profit soared 192.7% YoY to S$5.6m, as revenue climbed 23.9% to S$8.8m.

- SMRT CEO Desmond Kuek has unveiled a strategic blueprint for the public transport operator, focusing on operational performance and putting commuters first.

- Economists say more foreign worker curbs may be announced as soon as this month when the government presents its Budget for the new fiscal year on Feb 25.