KEY IDEA
SingTel: Upside fairly limited; downgrade to HOLDSummary: SingTel saw its 4QFY13 revenue slipping 6% YoY and 3% QoQ to S$4.48b, weighed down by the weaker A$. Full-year revenue fell 3% to S$18.18b, and was 3% shy of our forecast. 4Q core earnings slipped 2% YoY and rose 15% QoQ to S$1.0b. Core FY13 earnings eased 1.8% to S$3.61b, or about 4% below our forecast. SingTel has declared a final dividend of S$0.10/share, bringing the full-year payout to S$0.168 (74% of underlying net profit). Going forward, SingTel expects group consolidated revenue to remain stable, and EBITDA to see low single-digit growth. It has guided for S$2.5b capex spending and a FCF of S$2b; it also raised its dividend payout ratio to 60-75% (from 55-70% previously). While we raise our SOTP fair value from S$3.68 to S$3.83 (after updating the value of its listed associates), further upside from here looks limited after the recent sharp run-up. Hence we downgrade our call from Buy to HOLD. (Carey Wong) MORE REPORTS
Petra Foods - 1Q13 results below expectations
Summary: Petra Foods' 1Q13 results fell short of expectations as growth slowed relative to the previous quarters. Revenue grew 7.7% YoY to US$127.4m while margin improvement boosted gross and operating profit. Excluding losses from its to-be-divested Cocoa Ingredients business, which resulted in an overall net loss for Petra, core PATMI came in at US$14.1m (+20.0% YoY but -4.3% QoQ). Based on the results, we reduce our FY13 projections to reflect more achievable revenue growth targets and to account for a net loss in 2Q13 from sustained losses in the Cocoa Ingredients business. In terms of valuations, Petra is currently trading at more than 36x FY13F / 32x FY14F PE. In our view, this premium is too expensive at this juncture, and we expect some profit-taking on the likelihood of overall losses for 1H13. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value of S$3.88. (Lim Siyi)
Olam Int'l: HOLD - recalibration still needs time
Summary: Olam International Limited (Olam) saw 3QFY13 revenue climb 12% YoY (but decline 4% QoQ) to S$4.72b, such that its 9MFY13 revenue of S$14.31b (+20%) met 72% of our FY13 forecast. Reported net profit gained 10% YoY (but fell 30% QoQ) to S$108.5m, while core earnings (excluding bio-asset revaluation gains etc) rose 13% YoY (down 22% QoQ) to S$92.8m. Core 9MFY13 earnings of S$240.3m met about 79% of full-year forecast. Meanwhile, net gearing remains high at 2.2x as at end-Mar, unchanged from end-Dec; this after it further increased borrowings to S$9.3b from S$8.8b. But Olam intends to reduce its gearing boundary condition from <2.5x to <2.0x. Still, we could continue to see some overhang from its high net gearing. We also opt to keep our FY13 estimates unchanged. But our fair value improves from S$1.50 to S$1.73 as we push our valuations out from blended FY13/14F EPS to FY14F EPS. Maintain HOLD. (Carey Wong)
Midas Holdings: Adverse near-term conditions
Summary: Midas Holdings' 1Q13 net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY4.9m (1Q12: PATMI of CNY15.3m) was larger than our forecast for a net loss of CNY3.2m. This was attributed largely to a wider-than-estimated share of loss of CNY4.0m from its associated company, NPRT. Looking ahead, we believe that strength of Midas' recovery will depend heavily on the resumption of new high-speed railway (HSR) tenders. As the timeline of this is still uncertain, we believe that a more significant recovery in Midas' financial performance would likely come in FY14, versus our previous FY13 expectations. Paring our FY13 revenue and PATMI estimates by 9.7% and 59.1%, respectively, and lowering our valuation peg from 1.2x to 1.1x FY13F P/B, we derive a fair value estimate of S$0.54 (previously S$0.595). But we maintain our BUY rating as we expect the eventual HSR tenders resumption and subsequent contract wins by Midas to provide a re-rating catalyst for the stock. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)
SIA Engineering: FY13 within expectations
Summary: SIA Engineering Company's (SIAEC) FY13 results were in line with ours and the street's expectations. Revenue decreased 2.0% to S$1.15b, chiefly due to lower fleet management and project revenue. Operating profit fell 1.2% to S$128m. Share of profits from associated and JV companies increased 1.5% to S$159m, representing a contribution of 52.0% of the group's pre-tax profits. PATMI was up 0.4% to S$270m. Basic EPS of 24.51 S cents formed 98% of ours and the street's FY13 estimates. The board is recommending a final ordinary dividend of 15.0 S cents, which will bring total FY13 dividends to 22.0 S cents per share. Increasing our P/E peg from 17.1x to 20.0x and using an EPS forecast of 25.0 S cents for FY14F, we increase our fair value from S$4.38 to S$5.00 and maintain our HOLD rating on SIAEC.
(Sarah Ong)
CSE Global: Focus on margin stability
Summary: CSE Global reported 1Q13 results that were in-line with ours and the street's estimates. 1Q revenue fell 10.9% YoY to S$120m on lower contribution from the Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa), while PATMI was flat at S$12.7m. After encountering issues in the Middle East in 2011 (cost overrun at two large telco projects) and the Americas in 2012 (lower-than-expected margins for onshore work), CSE Global now appears to be more keen on the higher margin brownfield projects, while carefully re-evaluating the lower-margin greenfield jobs. We now expect a slight contraction or modest growth in the top-line across FY13-14F and gross margins to stabilize around 30%. We have tweaked our model slightly and our FV declines to S$0.96 (previously S$0.99) on 10x FY13F PER. Maintain BUY. (Chia Jiunyang)
Ezion Holdings: Bond issue to fund new contract
Summary: Ezion Holdings (Ezion) announced that it has received a letter of intent with a contract value of about US$80.3m over a four-year period to provide a service rig for an Asian-based national oil company. The unit is expected to be deployed and working in SE Asian waters by end-2013 after refurbishment and conversion. Unlike previous projects, this project will be funded through a bond issue; the total project cost is US$60m (US$40m asset cost, US$20m refurbishment, conversion). Indeed, we understand that Ezion has launched S$110m of six-year bonds at 4.70%. We maintain our BUYrating on the stock but put our fair value estimate of S$2.50 under review. (Low Pei Han)
KS Energy: Recovery will take time
Summary: KS Energy (KSE) reported a 27.6% YoY rise in revenue to S$153.4m and a net profit of S$1.1m in 1Q13, vs a net loss of S$315k in 1Q12. However, the group's operating profit went into the red again, after four previous quarters in the black. Though revenue and net profit accounted for about 24% and 26% of our full year estimates, respectively, we note that results were bumped up by gains arising from the sale of a jointly owned asset. Gross profit margin was lower at 23.3%, compared to 28.2% in 1Q12. Revenue from the distribution business grew 40.6% YoY to S$120.4m, mainly due to strong project related sales in SSH Corp and Aqua Terra. The drilling business, on the other hand, saw a 9.6% growth in revenue. Pending further details from management, we put our HOLD rating and fair value estimate of S$0.70 under review. (Low Pei Han) |
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