04 June 2013~ Good Morning Singapore!
Central Execution Team - The Excellence of Execution
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Global Flash: While You Were Sleeping
Source: Marketwatch
Quote for the day :I don't measure a man's success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom.
- GEORGE S. PATTON
Singapore: The Day AheadSINGAPORE DAYBOOK:Telcos backed into a corner by OTT players. As WhatsApp and Skype eat into their revenues, telcos are clutching at straws [SINGAPORE] As telcos eye the impending Armageddon of social messaging, they will find themselves hemmed in by rocks and hard places. Worse still, beyond the prospect of falling revenues lies nothing but a yawning abyss.
Over-the-top (OTT) apps such as WhatsApp, Skype and Viber have forced roaming revenue and SMS volumes into retreat yet again for the first quarter of the year, but there is little incentive for telcos to build or buy their own apps.
Existing social messaging apps occupy a space that is particularly infuriating for traditional carriers. These OTT players are destroying revenue but creating very little of their own - with the notable exception of WhatsApp.
At SingTel's full-year earnings conference last month, top executive Allen Lew summed up the industry's dilemma, framed by falling average revenues per user (ARPUs). (Source: The Business Times)
MARKET SCOOP
S'pore PMI rises to 51.1, shows manufacturing expansion in May
Datapulse Tech's Q3 profit up 23.2%
Ramba Energy surges to record high
Singapore'sDBS has one more shot at Danamon
Singapore's water companies aim to quench China's US$850b thirst
Moody's to review for downgrade 3 banks' subdebt ratings in S'pore
Swiber mulls issue of Islamic trust certificate
Indonesia awaits MAS response on Bank Danamon
(Source: The Business Times)
CIMB Securities says...
HO BEE INVESTMENTS | OUTPERFORM | TP: S$2.52
Ho Bee announced that it will acquire Rose Court, a 157,406 sqf freehold office located at Southwark Bridge Road, Central London, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Grandiose Investments Pte. Ltd
The purchase consideration of £67.2m will be financed via a mix of internal funds and bank borrowings, scheduled to be payable in full on 24 June 2013
The property will continue to be fully leased to the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, with lease expiry in Sep 2018
With passing rent in the range of £4.3m per year (£27psf), this translates to an attractive initial rental yield of 6% for the acquisition
We view this as an opportunistic move by Ho Bee, in view of the current Southwark prime rents of £45psf, 63% higher than the passing rent under government lease
We expect positive rental reversion in the range of 100% in 5 years' time when the current government lease expires
We also see this as a good move by Ho Bee to increase exposure to investment properties in view of the currently slow high-end residential development sales in Singapore
We adjust our FY13-15 core EPS to factor in rental income from the acquisition and tweaks to Singapore residential sales forecasts
Our target price, still based on a 30% discount to a revised RNAV, rises by 8% to S$2.52
We maintain Outperform, with strong office leasing as a catalyst
DEUTSCHE BANK says ...
CITY DEVELOPMENTS | HOLD | TP: S$11.01
We visited City Development's launch of its latest mass market project Jewel@Buangkok which started on Saturday
The 616 unit (592,212sqft GFA) project is located within a 2 minute walk to the Buangkok MRT
Sales were dominated by local buyers and upgraders, with a firm number of first time homebuyers
The most popular units were the 2 bedroom units
Jewel@Buangkok represents CDL's third launch this year, following D'Nest and Bartley Ridge
The development is skewed towards smaller unit sizes, consisting of 82 1br units (474-581sqft), 219 2br units (689-904sqft), 139 3br units (1109-1389sqft) and 80 4-5br units (1324-2540sqft
In addition to the MRT, the project is also located near Nan Chiau Primary School, as well as Hougang Green and Compass Point malls
Overall, the project was launched at an ASP of S$1150psf, inclusive of VIP and early bird discounts, above our estimate of S$1000psf
We estimate that marking to market the latest ASPs would add approximately 7cts to our RNAV (c.0.5%)
We believe that the firm take up is reflective of the project's attractive location near the MRT, and relative resilience of the mass market segment
CDL's Bartley Ridge project has seen strong take up of 79% (154 units in April) at an ASP of S$1,278psf, while D'Nest sold an additional 92 units in April at an ASP of S$959psf (85% sold)
Looking ahead, there is still significant supply in the pipeline, and hence we believe that projects with weaker dynamics may need to compete more aggressively on pricing
We maintain our Hold recommendation on CDL, with a target price of S$11.01 pegged to a 15% discount to our RNAV of S$13.07
NOMURA Securities says...
COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION | BUY | TP: S$2.19
As we move into 2H13, it increasingly makes sense to start anchoring returns based on 2014F earnings
As such, we raise our TP to SGD2.19, premised on our 2013/14F blended EPS of 2.9S$cent
There remains potential upside to our forecasts and valuations
We believe the group is still actively deploying its cash hoard into acquisitions which should be accretive to earnings and valuations
We estimate every SGD50mn worth of acquisitions will add ~2.4S$cent to our TP (+1%)
Separately, a fare increase could potentially add ~8S$cent to our TP (+4%) for every 1cent increase in fares
We do not profess to have any insight as to whether a fare increase will materialise, but choose to view it as an out-of-money option that comes free with the stock and which could be meaningful to earnings and valuations if it happens
In the meantime, investors are paid to wait for the upside events to materialise as the stock offers a FY13/14F dividend yield of 3.5/3.7%
Key risks include a loss of Australian bus contracts; higher-than-expected losses on DTL; regulatory changes; North-East Line breakdown; currency; higher oil price; higher staff cost
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